Wild West: Shootout at the OKC Corral

The west sure has been, well, wild. Nine combined rings between Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant could not save them from early elimination. Youth has been served, as Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant have each had iconic moments. Monkeys have been shed, as Dallas is back in the Conference Finals for the first time since ’06, after four straight disappointing exits. So, who will represent the West in the NBA Finals?

Dallas Mavericks (3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (4)

Key Match-ups:

PG: Jason Kidd vs. Russell Westbrook

SG: Jason Terry vs. James Harden

SF: Shawn Marion vs. Kevin Durant

PF: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Serge Ibaka

C: Tyson Chandler vs. Kendrick Perkins

This is the ultimate youth vs. experience battle. The Thunder has one of their best five players over the age of 22, Kendrick Perkins at an ancient 26. The Mavs are led by a 38-year-old point guard in Jason Kidd, and a bunch of title-hungry vets that sense their window of opportunity for a championship is closing rapidly.

Kidd’s days as a defensive stopper are long gone. He may not have a chance at guarding Westbrook, one of the premiere athletes in the league, one-on-one, but the 7’1” Tyson Chandler will help to curtail Westbrook’s ferocious onslaughts on the rim. Westbrook may settle for jumpers early. His inconsistency here is what separates him from MVP Derrick Rose. We have seen Westbrook be a little overconfident in his abilities, shooting too much, and forgetting he has the most gifted scorer in the league on his side in Kevin Durant.

Over-shooting did not prove fatal against Memphis, as he knew when to back off in crucial games. However, OKC was clearly the better team against he Grizzlies, and that series should not have gone seven games. In their three losses in the Semifinals, Westbrook shot 22, 22, and 23 times. In their four wins, he shot 10, 12, 22, and 33 (a triple overtime aberration) times. The Thunder is not the clear-cut better team against Dallas as they were Memphis, and overshooting from Westbrook will kill them here. Look for Kidd to allow Westbrook the jumper, while setting the pace with pinpoint passes for the Dallas offense.

James Harden played his best basketball of the season against Memphis, averaging 14 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists in the series. OKC will need more of the same against Jason Terry, who has been on a tear in the postseason, including a record nine three-pointer game in the decisive blowout against the Lakers. Terry’s hot shooting alone should win Dallas at least one game in this series.

Kevin Durant and Dirk Nowitzki might be the two toughest covers in the league. Both are damn near 7 feet tall, and are a threat to score from anywhere on the court. Dirk is slightly more post-oriented, while Durant is the better three-point shooter. Serge Ibaka will get the first crack at defending Dirk, with Shawn Marion doing the same against the Durantula. However, expect both teams to throw everything but the kitchen sink against the others’ premiere scorer. By the end of the series, we should be seeing what I think should be a rule in the NBA: the two best players on the court guarding each other. We could be looking at an epic scoring match-up here. I’m talking Bird vs. Wilkins in ’88 and LeBron vs. Pierce in ’08. If Dirk takes the series he should be handed a WWE- like belt, screaming at the top of a podium, “AAHHHHHH TAKE DAT WIT CHEW!!!!!”

Tyson Chandler is the X-Factor in this series. Without him protecting the four feet in front of the rim, Westbrook would drive right past Jason Kidd and throw down thunderous dunk after thunderous dunk. People forget Chandler was a member of the Thunder for all of one day in February of ’09, before they decided they didn’t want him. Chandler was a monster against the Thunder in the regular season. 7’1”, 235 lbs of pissed off athletic center is not something any point guard wants to drive against. I like Kendrick Perkins to do the same for OKC, if not for the fact that he is not pre-knee surgery Kendrick Perkins. His value is never measured by stats, but his dip from 7 points, 8 rebounds with the Celtics last season, to 4 and 6 with less than a block per game with OKC is pretty telling.

Dallas has been playing like a team on a mission. They haven’t lost a game since blowing that 23- point lead against Portland. I was on Dallas’ bandwagon for most of the regular season, and hopped off just in time to be made a fool of in the postseason. Consider me back on.

Pick: Dallas 4-3

(TAKE DAT WIT CHEW!!!!!!)

Beasts of the East battle for conference supremacy

Key Match-ups:

PG: Derrick Rose vs. Mario Chalmers/Mike Bibby

SG: Keith Bogans/Kyle Korver/Ronnie Brewer vs. Dwyane Wade

SF: Luol Deng vs. LeBron James

PF: Carlos Boozer/Taj Gibson vs. Chris Bosh

C: Joakim Noah vs. Joel Anthony

Tom Thibedaeu vs. WaBron

The Eastern Conference finals have been billed as MVP vs. Big Three. More specifically, the match-ups will break down as follows. Rose and Wade will cancel each other out, as they did during the regular season, each averaging 29 ppg against the other. LeBron’s scoring average for the series should be 10-15 points higher than Luol Deng’s. The other four players on the court with Rose will have to outscore the other three for Miami by that margin for the Bulls to win the series.

Expect Wade to guard Rose on the biggest possessions at the end of games. Chalmers is an excellent defender, but like just about every other point guard in the league, is overmatched physically against Rose. Conversely, Chicago has two defensive specialists in Keith Bogans and Ronnie Brewer to throw at Wade, while Kyle Korver can stop Wade from making the highlight defensive plays he has become known for by spreading the floor and hitting the three. Korver cannot guard Wade, but it is not for lack of effort. Korver has played the best defensive ball of his career this season, and is extremely scrappy. He simply lacks the lateral quickness to stay in front of Wade. This is where Tom Thibedeau and Joakim Noah come in to play, but more on them later.

Luol Deng is a premiere perimeter defender, and as good as a match-up you can ask for against LeBron. He can get you 20 points, and will nail the open three if LeBron gambles for a steal or block. The scoring margin in their two regular season match-ups was 27.5 for LeBron and 19 for Deng. If Deng can keep it that close, the Bulls will win the series, as they did in the regular season.

Carlos Boozer seems to have turned his postseason around, After a very underwhelming start, when he got outplayed by Tyler Hansbrough and Josh Smith his offensive skills re-emerged late in the Hawks series. He still can’t guard anyone, but his offense has turned around, and that’s what the Bulls need him for. Taj Gibson has been a menace defensively, and when Boozer’s offense isn’t there, often plays more minutes off the bench than the $80 million man. Gibson provides defense and rebounding, and is not slouch on offense. He can hit the midrange J and is always a threat for the emphatic put back dunk. The duo has to outplay Chris Bosh. Bosh has been a bit of an enigma in Miami this season, alternately dominating and disappearing for this team. If the Boston series was closer (see: had Shaq played) his comments about the Boston crowd getting to him could have cost Miami dearly.

Tom Thibedeau is the defensive mastermind who saw his Boston teams dispatch of both LeBron James and Dwyane Wade repeatedly. Joakim Noah is his wild card, and will prove to be the X-Factor in this series. Noah is a younger, fresher version of what he had with Kevin Garnett in Boston. He is also less of an offensive player than KG, meaning more of his energy is dedicated to defense and rebounding. Thibedeau’s specialty is a swarming defense that can shut down isolation players like Wade and James. The dynamic duo has finally become WaBron in the postseason, but Chicago, with the help defense of Noah, has the potential to split them apart again, and have one watch on the side as the other dominates the ball. Thibedeau’s defense, personified by Noah’s manic energy, will be the determining factor in this series. Home-court, where Chicago was 28-3, doesn’t hurt either.

Pick: Chicago in 7 

Chicago Bulls (1) vs. Atlanta Hawks (5)

Original pick: Chicago over Orlando 4-2

Key Match-ups:

PG: Derrick Rose vs. Jeff Teague

SG: Keith Bogans/Kyle Korver vs. Jamal Crawford

SF: Luol Deng vs. Joe Johnson

PF: Carlos Boozer vs. Josh Smith

C: Joakim Noah vs. Al Horford

            Chicago got here by impressing nobody in defeating the Indiana Pacers 4-1. The Hawks got to this round by shocking the NBA world, defeating Superman and his Muggle teammates. Chicago needs to step up and play like the top seed everyone expected to see coming into the postseason. DRose has been his spectacular self, carrying the Bulls through round 1. Second year man Jeff Teague replaces former Bull Kirk Hinrich (hand injury) in the unenviable role of trying to stop Rose. Teague has his coach’s confidence, stating he is the quickest player on the team, and has the best shot of anyone on the roster in containing the MVP. Atlanta also has the long, athletic wing and post players to help Teague and make life difficult for Rose. Regardless, expect him to find a way to have a monster series, as he has done so all season. In game 1, you couldn’t have asked the Hawks to play better D on Rose, and he still came away with 24/10/5.

            Rose’s dominance is not in question, but he needs a little help from his friends. Specifically, Carlos Boozer needs to start earning the $80 million the Bulls paid him to be the post presence this franchise hasn’t had since they traded away Elton Brand. It’s not so much his underwhelming stats (14/8 in game 1) it is the way  he is underperforming. Instead of simply missing a shot, Boozer’s mishaps often result in a four-point swing the other way. I saw it numerous times against the Pacers, and on several more occasions on Monday night. The Bulls have to find a way to get Boozer going. He will be trying to break free from his slump against one of the premiere athletes in the game in Josh Smith. Smith can be a complete game changer on the defensive end, and will be there to help curtail Rose. Boozer cannot be outscored by Smith if the Bulls want to be playing the next round.

            Luol Deng, on the other hand, has looked like a legitimate All-Star and Robin to Derrick Rose’s Batman. If there has been a huge non-Rose play for Chicago in the playoffs, it has come from Deng. He gets the tough buckets, driving across the lane, through contact, finishing with an assortment of runners and lay-ins around the goal. He’s always been an exceptional perimeter defender. Joe Johnson will continue to play a huge role in this series, but he will not have another night like Game 1 (12/18 from the field, 5/5 from the three point line).

             Both the Hawks and Bulls have a closer and three-point extraordinaire in the forms of Jamal Crawford and Kyle Korver. Crawford is the better all-around player, and, with his quickness, is a difficult cover for Korver. Tom Thibedeau will be earning his Coach of the Year Award in this series, as he will have to do a lot offense-defense substituting at the end of the games with Korver and Keith Bogans or, preferably, Ronnie Brewer. Brewer has the capability of shutting down Crawford, while Bogans can give the Bulls a big boost at the start by knocking down open threes. Korver hit huge threes off Rose’s penetration late in games to help them get out of Indiana. He held up his end of the bargain again on Monday night, but the Bulls could not stop a red-hot Joe Johnson.

            Joakim Noah vs. Al Horford is one of the most intriguing match-ups in the playoffs. The former teammates won two NCAA titles together at Florida. Both are slightly undersized as centers, so it should come as somewhat of a relief to be playing the other, as opposed to Dwight Howard. Noah is the more energetic scrapper, while Horford has the more polished (and much better looking) offensive game. Their contributions should cancel each other out, as Horford will get slightly more points, but Noah should have a small edge in rebounds and blocked shots. The relationship of the former teammates will be strained in this one, as they duke it out in a long series.

            Atlanta has been playing out of its mind thus far in the playoffs, where Chicago has yet to peak. I expect things to balance out some in this one.

Modified Pick: Chicago 4-3

The Wild West: Round 2

Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (8)

Original pick: Thunder over Spurs 4-2

Key Match-ups:

PG: Russell Westbrook vs. Mike Conley, Jr.

SG: James Harden vs. Sam Young

SF: Kevin Durant vs. Tony Allen

PF: Serge Ibaka vs. Zach Randolph

C: Kendrick Perkins vs. Marc Gasol

Congratulations are deserved for the Memphis Grizzlies. They won the first playoff series in their franchise’s history, defeating the heavily favored San Antonio Spurs, they of the 62 wins and multiple championships, handily in six games. They simultaneously have ended any chance Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan had of winning a fifth title. And they did it with their best player, Rudy Gay, watching from the bench. They did it with size, as Zach Randlolph and Marc Gasol easily handled the aged duo of Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess. They also did it with defense, as Mike Conley, JR. and Tony Allen did an effective job locking down Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker.

Now they take on the Oklahoma City Thunder. The brute force tandem will face an even bruter force in the Human Tree Trunk, Kendrick Perkins, and an athletic freak in the shot-blocking Serge Ibaka. Memphis’ duo will undoubtedly outscore OKC’s, as Ibaka and Perkins are generally the fourth and fifth options on the floor, but the Thunder should do a much better job containing Randolph and Gasol than San Antonio’s bigs.

Tony Allen is as good of a perimeter defender as you can have to put on Kevin Durant, but Durant has stepped up to a level where the only thing that can stop him as an off shooting night. Mike Conley was younger, quicker, and fresher than Tony Parker. He has none of those advantages on Russell Westbrook, who can add size and athleticism to his list of advantages over his counterpart. Conley is a good player, and should still hold a solid stat line, but “DRose West” is as difficult a cover for a point guard in this league.

Athleticism and youth were huge team advantages for the Grizz against an aging San Antonio team. Neither team has a clear advantage in those departments in this round. I say the Thunder’s bigs can contain Memphis’ better than Memphis’ perimeter D can stop the dynamic duo of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.

Pick: Thunder 4-3

Los Angeles Lakers (2) vs. Dallas Mavericks (3)

Original pick: Lakers over Blazers 4-1

Key Match-ups:

PG: Derek Fisher vs. Jason Kidd

SG: Kobe Bryant vs. Jason Terry

SF: Ron Artest vs. Shawn Marion

PF: Pau Gasol vs. Dirk Nowitzki

C: Andrew Bynum vs. Tyson Chandler

I’m kicking myself for picking Portland in the previous round. I had Dallas the hole time. Then, I overanalyzed, though about it too much, and now feel like a fool for changing my pick. Anyway, on to the task at hand… LA has hardly looked like world beaters thus far, receiving a scare from a far inferior New Orleans Hornets team. CP3 should have been good for one win, not two, and certainly not the first game of the series. Remember, though the Lakers pulled the same stunt against eight seed Oklahoma City last season on their way to the championship.

Dallas has the best Kobe stopper a team could ask for. Unfortunately, he is wearing a suit and tie, recovering from midseason knee surgery. In the absence of Caron Butler, Dallas is left with a crop of undersized (Jason Terry) and underwhelming (DeShawn Stevenson) shooting guards. The most effective lineup Dallas may have against LA is having Peja Stojakavich at small forward with Marion, the team’s best perimeter defender, sliding over to the 2 to play Kobe. I would love to see Corey Brewer get a crack, but he barely played against Portland. Artest may abuse Peja down low, but I like the idea of a 6’10” Peja on ‘Test, rather than a 6’2” Jason Terry on one of the greatest scorers of all time. At the same time, Terry is their second best scorer, and they need productive minutes from him. Rick Carlisle will have to work some match-up magic to keep this one close, or Kobe will abuse Dallas’ standard 2-guard platoon.

Pau Gasol had a tough time with Carl Landry, which is bad news for Lakers fans, as Dirk may be the most difficult cover in the league. Granted, Dirk doesn’t have the scrappy tenacity of Landry that bothered Gasol, but Dirk will keep him off the boards with his perimeter scoring, opening up the lane for the rest of the offense. If Gasol doesn’t get going down low early, he may be waiting another round to snap out of his slump. Tyson Chandler was a beast against Portland, and a huge reason why the Mavs advanced. As Andrew Bynum looks more and more like LA’s second best player, Chandler’s defense on Bynum will be huge. LA already has a huge Kobe advantage. Dallas cannot allow LA to have any advantage in the post, or this one will be over quickly.

Modified pick: Lakers 4-2*.

*It really is a shame Butler isn’t healthy for this one. I thought Dallas had a chance to knock off the champs at the start of the season. If Dallas’ aging vets can stay sharp and extend its championship window one more year, I like the Mavs to make a run in 2012.

Now that the dust has finally settled out west, it is time for predictions…

(1)    San Antonio vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies

The Match-ups:

PG: Tony  Parker vs. Mike Conley, JR.

SG: Gary Neal/Manu Ginobili vs. Sam Young

SF: Richard Jefferson vs. Tony Allen

PF: Tim Duncan vs. Zach Randolph

C: DeJuan Blair vs. Marc Gasol

This should be very competitive, especially for a 1 vs. 8 match-up. Memphis has never won a playoff game, let a lone a series, while the Spurs have multiple championship winners filling its roster. Memphis’ bigs, however, match up very well with San Antonio’s. Not to say he’s a better player, even in this stage of Duncan’s career, but Zach Randolph has a clear statistical advantage in both points and rebounds. Likewise, Marc Gasol is a big, physical body that had a great season for the Grizz. San Antonio has 270 lbs. of DeJuan Blair to throw at him, though, and I expect both to have gaudy rebounding numbers in this one.

When the Grizzlies signed Mike Conley to that extension, I thought they were crazy. While I still think it was premature, Conley has played well enough to restore Memphis’ front office’s sanity in my eyes. Quicker at this stage in their respective careers than Tony Parker, they should be fun to watch running up and down the floor. Tony Allen has stepped in admirably for the injured Rudy Gay, easily Memphis’ best player. I like his match-up against Richard Jefferson, as Allen could completely take him out of some games. Fortunately for San Antonio, Memphis does not have a dominant shooting guard to exploit the loss of Ginobili. Manu is still listed as doubtful, but tweeted that the pain in his hyper extended elbow is almost gone. I expect a game 2 or 3 return for San Antonio’s X-Factor. I like Memphis, but not enough to pick them over the championship experience of San Antonio. Expect a huge spike in Tim Duncan’s numbers, as Poppovich limited his playing time (career low 28.4 minutes per game) with an eye towards the playoffs.

Pick: San Antonio 4-2

(2)    L.A. Lakers vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets

The Match-ups:

PG: Derek Fisher vs. Chris Paul

SG: Kobe Bryant vs. Marco Belinelli

SF: Ron Artest vs. Trevor Ariza

PF: Pau Gasol vs. Carl Landry

C: Andrew Bynum vs. Emeka Okafor

New Orleans has a lot of heart, and has played well in spite of the loss of their second best player, David West, to an ACL tear. I like the Hornets, and ironically, West’s injury may be the only thing keeps him affordable, and allows New Orleans to keep their core together. With or without West, however, New Orleans is not big enough to hang with LA, as their center is shorter than LA’s third big man, Lamar Odom. The brilliance of Chris Paul is the only thing that will keep this one somewhat competitive. Kobe Bryant will abuse Marco Belinelli.

The most intriguing battle will be Ron Artest vs. Trevor Ariza. It’s a shame this one won’t be closer, for watching the two defensive specialists truly duke it out (maybe literally) would have been great to watch. However, their performances could give a more definitive answer to the Ariza vs. Artest debate. Carl Landry is a nice player, and has filled in admirably for West, but Gasol is just too big and too skilled for him. Again, Okafor is a very good, tough, and physical player, but Bynum is too big of a body. Look for LA to run away with this series early, and rest Bynum. They have had two scares with his troublesome knees in the last couple of weeks, and a third could be catastrophic to their championship hopes.

Pick: LA 4-1

(3)    Dallas Mavericks vs. (6) Portland Trail Blazers

The Match-ups:

PG: Jason Kidd vs. Andre Miller

SG: Rodrigue Beaubois vs. Wesley Mathews

SF: Shawn Marion vs. Gerald Wallace

PF: Dirk Nowitzki vs. LaMarcus Aldridge

C: Tyson Chandler vs. Marcus Camby

                Will the size of the Portland Trail Blazers’ shooting guards prevail, or will it be the quickness of the Roddy Beabois and Jason Terry that give the bigger guards fits? The teams are almost freakishly well matched up every where else, and the series could go as the shooting guard battle goes. Earlier in the season, I pegged Dallas as a team that cold give the Lakers fits in the playoffs, as they seemed to have the combination of size, talent, and playoff experience to do it, plus the championship hunger. Dallas immediately became less dangerous, however, when they lost Caron Butler for the season. The remaining players seemed to become disheartened when the trade deadline came and went without a trade to replace Butler’s defense and scoring, as they finished the season 1-9 against the West’s playoff teams.

Tyson Chandler will be going against his older alter-ego in Marcus Camby, and both men should man the post effectively, while Dallas has a more effective backup in the 7 footer Brendan Haywood. Seeing Lamarcus Aldridge and Dirk Nowitzki duke it out will be a spectacle, and has the makings of an all-time duel. If Dirk can get over the championship hump, he will go down as a modern day Larry Bird. As it stands now, he may be more responsible for his team’s success than any other player in the league.

                Dallas’ best matchups against Portland may include Jason Terry and Deshawn Stevenson in the same backcourt. Dallas has not utilized this offensive specialist/defensive specialist combination yet, so it is unlikely to see them do it now. The wild card here is the effectiveness of Brandon Roy. Has Portland been resting him so he can play significant minutes in the playoffs, or are his knees really shot to the point where he can no longer play 30 minutes per game, even for a playoff series? If I am Nate McMillan, I am playing Roy for a total of 15 minutes in the first three quarters, before letting him play the entire fourth. Roy was well on his way to becoming a perennial All-Star before the knee problems that scared teams off in the draft acted up. I say he can be give an all-star performance for a quarter per game. I want to pick Dallas, but their recent playoff and late-season struggles suggest otherwise.

Pick: Portland 4-3

(4)    Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Denver Nuggets

(5)    The Match-ups:

PG: Russell Westbrook vs. Ty Lawson

SG: James Harden vs. Aaron Afflalo

SF: Kevin Durant vs. Danilo Gallinari

PF: Serge Ibaka vs. Kenyon Martin

C: Kendrick Perkins vs. Nene

                This will be the most exciting and high-scoring series in the West’s opening round. Expect multiple over times, and final scores with both teams in the 120s. For all of his exceptional gifts, Russell Westbrook will have his hands full with the dynamic duo of Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton. He will be facing two of the very few guards that are quicker than he is, and must use his strength to his advantage by posting up the smaller duo. James Harden is playing his best basketball down the stretch, and must use his size advantageously when Lawson and Felton share the backcourt. Arron Afflalo and J.R. Smith will have to knock down big threes for Denver.

Danilo Gallinari will have his spurts where he matches Durant shot for shot, but is not consistently near Durant’s level. This is Durant’s time to shine as one of the premiere players on a premiere stage. There weren’t a lot of expectations last season in his first playoff experience as an eight seed, but now is his time to prove he is on the level of Kobe, LeBron, and Wade. We may see the making of a legend an all-time performer in this one.

Serge Ibaka will have his chance to prove the “young KG” references are warranted. Kenyon Martin will do his best to dispel that theory. While his athleticism has gone with his knees, and he doesn’t stand a chance with Ibaka in a slam dunk contest, Martin is still strong as an ox, battle-tested in the playoffs, and uber-competitive. Kendrick Perkins gets his first chance to show off his championship grit to his new teammates, and will not disappoint. Earlier in the season, I wrote how lack of size would kill this team in the playoffs. By trading Jeff Green for Kendrick Perkins, Ibaka can slide into his natural position of power forward, giving the Thunder some of the best protection around the six feet in front of the basket in the league. The Thunder also brought in true center Nazr Mohammed, a starter for the Spurs’ 2005 championship team, in an underrated move. By turning a weakness into a strength, the Thunder are ready to turn some heads and contend for a championship. Now.

Pick: Thunder 4-3 in a super-thriller.

While the Wild West lives up to its name (we won’t know most of the seedings until after tonight) I guess we will skip ahead to Eastern Conference Round 2 predictions…

(1)   Chicago Bulls vs. (4) Orlando Magic

The Match-ups:

PG: Derrick Rose vs. Jameer Nelson

SG: Keith Bogans vs. Jason Richardson

SF: Luol Deng vs. Hedo Turkoglu

PF: Carlos Boozer vs. Brandon Bass

C: Joakim Noah vs. Dwight Howard

            The Bulls won the final three regular season match-ups against Orlando after their worst loss of the season, 107-78 on Dec. 1 (Carlos Boozer’s first game of the season). That, of course, was before the huge trade that shook up the Magic roster and made them look like the cast from The Expendables. A mixture of washed-up, slightly past their prime, and barely-hanging-on talent thrown together in a big budget film that will produce a lot of oohs and ahs, struggle with cohesion and chemistry, and at the end of the day, won’t be holding any Academy Awards. Otis Smith/Sylvester Stallone should be ashamed. 

 Orlando was hot from the outside in that game, going 10 for 21 from three-point land. The Magic will have to continue to dominate from distance to keep up with the Bulls. Chicago falls asleep on perimeter D from time to time, but I don’t see it happening often, if at all, in the playoffs. Dwight Howard and Derrick Rose will not find much resistance in getting their points. The difference, however, is Rose takes over the end of games, where as Howard, with his poor free throw shooting, is easy to take out at the end. The Magic still do not have a closer, a problem that has plagued them since their Finals run two years ago.

The Magic’s porous D could lead to foul trouble for Howard, as he will be the only thing stopping Rose on his ferocious drives to the basket. After the recent near Howard-less loss the Magic, I expect the Bulls to pick it up, especially in their defense on Ryan Anderson, who made Noah look bad in route to his career-high 28 points (Noah was eventually benched in favor of Taj Gibson). Turkoglu will have a tough time offensively and defensively with Luol Deng, and his stat line could look pretty ugly buy the end of the series. Keith Bogans and Ronnie Brewer should be able to handle Jason Richardson defensively. Dwight Howard’s dominance and a couple of hot shooting nights should be enough to make this one competitive.

Pick: Chicago 4-2

(2)   Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics

Match-ups:

PG: Mario Chalmers vs. Rajon Rondo

SG: Dwyane Wade vs. Ray Allen

SF: LeBron James vs. Paul Pierce

PF: Chris Bosh vs. Kevin Garnett

C: Erik Dampier vs. Jermaine O’Neal

Ladies and Gentlemen, the moment you’ve all been waiting for…

            This is the series we have all wanted to see since the words “I’m taking my talents to South Beach” escaped LeBron’s mouth on that fateful Summer day that changed the NBA as we knew it. If the Magic are The Expendables this match-up is The Departed. It’s got the brilliant star power who complement each other brilliantly. It has more twists in its plot than a ride at Hershey Park. Overseeing it all is Pat Riley, who shipped Carlos Arroyo’s contract to Boston for Marty Scorsese’s director’s chair. It’s Matt Damon vs. Leonardo Dicaprio. It’s Dumbledore vs. Voldemort. It’s Big Three vs. Big Threegos.  It’s… Miami vs. Boston.

            Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers have been splitting time and starting opportunities, but unless Bibby gets hot from deep in the first two minutes he’s on the floor, he should not play more than 15 minutes in any game this series. In spite of his performance in the recent 100-77 loss to Miami, Rondo will shred Bibby to pieces. Chalmers has the length and speed to contain Rondo, is already known as a defensive specialist, and can knock down the three pointer to keep Rondo honest (not gambling for easy steals by sagging off). Every year in the playoffs, Ray Allen surprises me with his defense. I’ve never seen such a huge disparity in regular-season defense to playoff defense. Allen is a solid and capable defender who plays his part in the regular season, but in the playoffs he is all-world. He did an amazing job on Kobe in the finals last year, including helping force him into an 8 for 24 shooting performance in game 7.

            Paul Pierce vs. LeBron James. We have seen this one before, and it can only get better. They are the two best small forwards of the generation, going toe-to-toe. They’ve hounded each other into bad offensive nights, and they’ve lit each other up, like they did in game 7 of Boston vs. Cleveland in 2008, when they went off for 45 and 41 respectively in the Celtics’ victory en route to their championship. Predictably, LeBron has had the slightly better stats, but Pierce has the hardware. Pierce represents the proverbial monkey on LeBron’s back. Can he throw him off this time around?

            And of course, who could forget about Chris Bosh vs. Kevin Garnett. Bosh, once referred to as “A young Kevin Garnett” will have his chance on the biggest stage to prove he is not the forgotten man of the Big Threegos. Bosh has been a much more efficient part of the offense since his demand of getting the ball in his comfort spot. To their credit, Wade and James have delivered, and the Heat have been rolling ever since.

            Since before the season started, I’ve gone back and forth approximately 153,472 times on who would win this one. It comes down to this: Can the Big Threegos cease to be LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh? To come out on top, they must be WaBron and Bosh. The reason Bosh’s stats haven’t been affected by the highs and lows of Miami’s season is because, at their worst, Miami has played a two man game with Wade or LeBron pounding the ball at the top of the key, then creating his own shot, or creating for Bosh. They cannot advance past the second round doing this. At their best, WaBron and Bosh team with the other two players on the court to create beautiful ball movement and chemistry. I say WaBron can show up for four out of seven games.

Pick: Miami 4-3*

That’s right. A 7’1” 350 lb. asterisk. My prediction was still with Boston up until Shaq’s calf injury. 30 minutes per game of Shaq from the second round on is the difference between Boston losing here in 7, and them beating Miami in 7, and Chicago in 7 to return to the finals. As the teams stand now I have to take Miami. 30 minutes from Shaq can replace 90% of what Kendrick Perkins did for this team defensively, while simultaneously being an upgrade offensively. The fate of the most exciting season in decades resting on Shaq’s shoulders? The Big Fella wouldn’t have it any other way.  

Welcome to the NBA Tournament

                                                           The Beasts in the East

                                                 Chicago Bulls (1) vs. Indiana Pacers (8)
                                                                     Match-ups:
                                                 PG: Derrick Rose vs. Darren Collison
                                                  SG: Keith Bogans vs. Paul George
                                                   SF: Luol Deng vs. Danny Granger
                                               PF: Carlos Boozer vs. Tyler Hansbrough
                                                     C: Joakim Noah vs. Roy Hibbert

             This match-up will end up very similar to that of the Bulls’ last season, though on the opposite end of the spectrum. This time Chicago is the top dog playing host to the upstart Pacers. Indiana is a young, tough, and well-coached team that won’t have enough talent to hang with Chicago. However, like Joakim Noah last season vs. LeBron’s Cavs, Danny Granger has made it clear Indiana will fight through every game. The stars here are obviously Derrick Rose and Danny Granger. However, Rose should exploit Collison through the series, as like most match-ups for Rose, he has every physical advantage over the solid Collison. The Bulls however, have a fringe All-Star and probable All-NBA defender in Luol Deng to throw against Granger, as well as the best team defense in the NBA to help slow him down. Expect some tough shooting nights from Granger. Tyler Hansbrough’s spasmic energy may frustrate Boozer down low, and a few Duke vs. UNC bad blood shoving matches between the two would not be a surprise. With young talent at one through five, the Pacers have a bright future. If the Pacers determine Hibbert and Hansbrough aren't building blocks, they could package the pair for another star scorer to pair with Granger. However, this team’s ceiling may be to lose entertaining match-ups year in and year out to the Heat and Bulls. Party like it’s 1996.
Pick: Bulls 4-1

                                              Miami Heat (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7)
                                                                Match-ups:
                                           PG: Mario Chalmers vs. Jrue Holliday
                                             SG: Dwyane Wade vs. Jodie Meeks
                                            SF: LeBron James vs. Andre Igoudala
                                                PF: Chris Bosh vs. Elton Brand
                                           C: Erik Dampier vs. Spencer Hawes

           With the Big Threegos, we know where the obvious match-up advantages are here. And unfortunately for Philly they may hae the superior point guard and center positions, in Jrue Holliday and Spencer Hawes, but that duo is not striking fear in anybody. Expect Dwyane Wade to abuse Jodie Meeks and cripple his confidence by game 2. You can’t really ask for a better defender to put on LeBron than Andre Igoudala, but will it matter? Elton Brand had his best season in Philadelphia, but the length and athleticism of Bosh will frustrate him. It’s unfortunate the 76ers drew this match-up, as with their youth, athleticism, and team offense I think they could have put a scare in Boston had they been able to hold onto the 6 seed. Great work by Doug Collins on the season, as he took one of the worst teams in the NBA and made them a playoff team with virtually the same roster. Evan Turner will have to make huge strides in the next two seasons for this team to advance any further than a first round exit. As it stands, however, I only see over-confidence leading to any wins for the scrappy 6ers.
Pick: Miami 4-1

                                                 Boston Celtics (3) vs. New York Knicks
                                                                     Match-ups:
                                                PG: Rajon Rondo vs. Chauncey Billups
                                                      SG: Ray Allen vs. Landry Fields
                                                     SF: Paul Pierce vs. Carmelo Anthony
                                                 PF: Kevin Garnett vs. Amare Stoudemire
                                              C: Jermaine O’Neal vs. Jared Jeffries

             This will be the most entertaining of the first-round series’ and a classic offense vs. defense match-up. The current trending of the two teams’ makes me want to pick New York in the upset. However, Boston has that championship grit, and is always capable of making a run. Seeing as how New York does not have any true centers, this as far as Boston can go without 30 minutes per game of Shaq. Rondo versus Billups is about as polar opposite of styles as a point guard match-up can be. Rondo is a young, slashing, creative passer with a specialty on defense. Billups is the smooth-shooting heady veteran whose defense has slipped a bit as his quickness has gone in recent years, but is a force to be reckoned with at the end of games. As if sticking LeBron James and Kobe Bryant weren’t enough, Paul Pierce now has Carmelo Anthony to hound for an entire series. Kevin Garnett seems fresher at this stage than Amare, who seems to have burnt out from carrying the Knicks for the first 2/3 of the season. The Celtics’ team defense and rebounding should be enough to carry them past the rising Knicks. Jared Jeffries and Shelden Williams are stiffs at center, and Boston should be fine with Nenad Krstic and whatever they can get out of the O’Neal brothers. Jermaine O'Neal's 37 minute double double against Washington was very encouraging to see for Boston. There is no chance of them getting out of the second round with Krstic playing 30 minutes.
Pick: Boston 4-2

                                              Orlando Magic (4) vs. Atlanta Hawks (5)
                                                               The match-ups:
                                                PG: Jameer Nelson vs. Kirk Hinrich
                                               SG: Jason Richardson vs. Joe Johnson
                                                  SF: Hedo Turkoglu vs. Josh Smith
                                                  PF: Brandon Bass vs. Al Horford
                                                C: Dwight Howard vs. Zaza Pachulia
           
             These teams deserve each other. They are the two biggest underachievers in the league and frequently seem disinterested, like winning games is not of importance. When Orlando made the big trade earlier, I was all for it. Now, seeing what Marcin Gortat has done with his minutes in Pheonix, I am wondering how they pass up the opportunity to put the perfect power forward next to Howard. How do you pass on having two 7 foot shot-blocking big men? Who would be able to drive against that duo? Who would even want to try? Offensively, they even complement each other, as Gortat can hit the midrange J, and even jacks up a few threes in Pheonix (then again once you cross into Arizona you are given the green light to throw up some triples). This has the potential to be an epic and high-scoring affair. However, both teams have proven thus far they are not going to live up to their potential. This has the makings of a going-through-the motions series, with the teams trading who will go through the motions with slightly more enthusiasm and energy.
Orlando 4-2