The ‘Melo situation: What should the Nuggets do?

With the February 24^th trading deadline looming, the Denver Nuggets are getting closer and closer to losing their franchise player for nothing. The effects of a move like this can devastate a team for years. Just ask the Orlando Magic, of whom it took twelve seasons before the franchise would win another playoff series, behind their new “Superman” center phenom, Dwight Howard, after Shaq’s exodus to the Lakers. More recently, the Cleveland Cavaliers are now extending the NBA record for most consecutive losses in a season with every defeat, and are now standing at 24 straight. They are also in the midst of a 25% revenue drop from last year’s LeBron James-led squad. Twenty-five percent of the team’s entire revenue relied on one player. The Denver Nuggets went nine years without a playoff appearance before drafting Anthony, and a comparable falloff is not l out of the question if the Nuggets fail to move Anthony before the 24^th.

Denver is facing an uphill climb here. With every passing day, they lose leverage on what they will receive for Anthony. On top of the fact that no one except the most desperate of franchises will offer up the necessary assets without first getting the signed contract extension. And of course, ‘Melo will only sign it with a contender. With one potential bridge burned (the Nets), and a decreasing number of suitors, it is desperation time for the Nuggets. That being said, where will ‘Melo wind up?

Option #1: The New York Knicks:

The Knicks are the team that have been rumored from the start, and in many ways has sparked the “Carmelo wants out of Denver,” mania. The current rumored deal is for the Knicks to package Eddy Curry’s big fat expiring a‑­­‑ er, contract, and the talented but ineffective Anthony Randolph to the Minnesota Timberwolves, with Wilson Chandler going directly to Denver.

DenverDoom-O-Meter: Cavs-esque Catastrophe. Unless they could include or trade Chauncey Billups in a separate deal, and get something valuable in return, this would destroy Denver. Billups would then walk at the end of the season, turning the team over to Ty Lawson. Lawson will be a very good point guard, but not with Wilson Chandler as his primary scorer. Chandler is a nice young player, and would be a great third or fourth option for a playoff team, but is a leading man for no team. If I’m Nuggets GM Masai Ujiri, I’m telling the Knicks not to contact me again until they get serious. And by serious I mean offer Danilo Galinari, the only true asset that should be accepted in a Melo-to-the-Knick deal. And in the karma factor, this would be the ultimate ‘get your cake and eat it too’ situation for Carmelo, and a player forcing himself out of an already solid contender does not deserve said cake.

Option #2: The Houston Rockets

The Rockets are the one team that may deal for ‘Melo without the signed extension. That’s because they are in the unique position of being out of the playoff race, but not completely out of it. They are currently 3.5 games out. The heavy revenue increase of a potential playoff run could be too much for Houston to pass up. They also have their own star player whose contract is set to expire: Kevin Martin. Denver would make this deal because Martin is one of the few players who could fill ‘Melo’s void as a volume scorer and they would have a chance to re-sign Martin in the off season, which is more that can be said about Anthony at this point.

Denver Doom-O-Meter: Ifs and coulds. This trade could work out for Denver. Again, they would have to move Billups for one more valuable asset to offset the loss of Anthony, handing the keys to the offense over to Lawson. Lawson is fast and talented, and has performed well off the bench as a spot-starter. He looks like he could easily be as good as Ray Felton with the right pieces around him, and Martins is a good piece to start with.

Option #3: The Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have the best player to realistically replace Carmelo Anthony in Luol Deng. They have a young big man Denver would wants in return, in Taj Gibson or Omer Asik. And they have two first round picks, one that should be in the lottery, courtesy of Charlotte. The addition of Anthony would most likely make them the favorite to win the East, so they have the incentive to get the deal done. And most importantly for Denver to get value in return: ‘Melo’s camp has indicated Chicago is one of the very few teams (See: the Knicks) they would be willing to sign an extension with.

Denver Doom-O-Meter: Least possible damage done to franchise. Deng would immediately step in at the 3, replacing ‘Melo. He’s a not-quite all-star-guy, the best you could expect in a deal of this nature to flat out replace your franchise guy. By running a lineup with Billups and Lawson sharing the same backcourt, plus additional minutes to the explosive J.R. Smith, the scoring loss should pretty much be offset. And Deng is a clear upgrade over ‘Melo on defense. They would gain additional assets with either Gibson or Asik. Gibson (more likely to be included in this trade) would be an immediate upgrade over the aged and injury prone Kenyon Martin and the talented but soft Al Harrington at power forward. Even if Billups walks, the team would most likely continue to be a playoff contender for the foreseeable future.

Option #4: The Field.

Somebody out there could package together some semi-talented pieces for ‘Melo. This would be futile for both Denver and Team X. Denver wouldn’t get nearly enough talent to offset the loss, and there is no chance Team X would be able to re-sign Anthony. This would strictly be a business move for Team X, as their GM would see a lost season, and try to put butts in the seats for their three-month Carmelo Anthony exhibition, while pretending to have a legitimate chance at signing ‘Melo in the offseason.

Denver Doom-O-Meter: Again, Cavs-esque catastrophe. They would be the classic team with a roster that would complement a superstar nicely. Without a superstar. Not a good combination.

This really comes down a two-team race, with Houston serving as a wild card. The Bulls have the assets, while the Knicks seem to be convinced that they can convince Denver they can package something together with a third team to get them value. I still don’t see a New York deal getting done unless they are willing to include Gallinari, Landry Fields, and/or Timofey Mosgov, and they have yet to indicate they are willing to do so. Chicago has not feigned any interest in Anthony since the Joakim Noah rumors were shot down. Still this franchise likes to play things close to the chest, and I would not rule them out. They’re leverage gets better every day, as the Nuggets will realize time is slipping away, and there is no way they are going to get Noah. If I’m Denver, I’m taking the Bulls deal, flat out. Aside of the stars aligning after a Houston deal, they are the only chance for the franchise not to fall into a decade’s worth of futility.