(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (4) Orlando Magic
The Match-ups:
PG: Derrick Rose vs. Jameer Nelson
SG: Keith Bogans vs. Jason Richardson
SF: Luol Deng vs. Hedo Turkoglu
PF: Carlos Boozer vs. Brandon Bass
C: Joakim Noah vs. Dwight Howard
The Bulls won the final three regular season match-ups against Orlando after their worst loss of the season, 107-78 on Dec. 1 (Carlos Boozer’s first game of the season). That, of course, was before the huge trade that shook up the Magic roster and made them look like the cast from The Expendables. A mixture of washed-up, slightly past their prime, and barely-hanging-on talent thrown together in a big budget film that will produce a lot of oohs and ahs, struggle with cohesion and chemistry, and at the end of the day, won’t be holding any Academy Awards. Otis Smith/Sylvester Stallone should be ashamed.
Orlando was hot from the outside in that game, going 10 for 21 from three-point land. The Magic will have to continue to dominate from distance to keep up with the Bulls. Chicago falls asleep on perimeter D from time to time, but I don’t see it happening often, if at all, in the playoffs. Dwight Howard and Derrick Rose will not find much resistance in getting their points. The difference, however, is Rose takes over the end of games, where as Howard, with his poor free throw shooting, is easy to take out at the end. The Magic still do not have a closer, a problem that has plagued them since their Finals run two years ago.
The Magic’s porous D could lead to foul trouble for Howard, as he will be the only thing stopping Rose on his ferocious drives to the basket. After the recent near Howard-less loss the Magic, I expect the Bulls to pick it up, especially in their defense on Ryan Anderson, who made Noah look bad in route to his career-high 28 points (Noah was eventually benched in favor of Taj Gibson). Turkoglu will have a tough time offensively and defensively with Luol Deng, and his stat line could look pretty ugly buy the end of the series. Keith Bogans and Ronnie Brewer should be able to handle Jason Richardson defensively. Dwight Howard’s dominance and a couple of hot shooting nights should be enough to make this one competitive.
Pick: Chicago 4-2
(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics
Match-ups:
PG: Mario Chalmers vs. Rajon Rondo
SG: Dwyane Wade vs. Ray Allen
SF: LeBron James vs. Paul Pierce
PF: Chris Bosh vs. Kevin Garnett
C: Erik Dampier vs. Jermaine O’Neal
Ladies and Gentlemen, the moment you’ve all been waiting for…
This is the series we have all wanted to see since the words “I’m taking my talents to South Beach” escaped LeBron’s mouth on that fateful Summer day that changed the NBA as we knew it. If the Magic are The Expendables this match-up is The Departed. It’s got the brilliant star power who complement each other brilliantly. It has more twists in its plot than a ride at Hershey Park. Overseeing it all is Pat Riley, who shipped Carlos Arroyo’s contract to Boston for Marty Scorsese’s director’s chair. It’s Matt Damon vs. Leonardo Dicaprio. It’s Dumbledore vs. Voldemort. It’s Big Three vs. Big Threegos. It’s… Miami vs. Boston.
Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers have been splitting time and starting opportunities, but unless Bibby gets hot from deep in the first two minutes he’s on the floor, he should not play more than 15 minutes in any game this series. In spite of his performance in the recent 100-77 loss to Miami, Rondo will shred Bibby to pieces. Chalmers has the length and speed to contain Rondo, is already known as a defensive specialist, and can knock down the three pointer to keep Rondo honest (not gambling for easy steals by sagging off). Every year in the playoffs, Ray Allen surprises me with his defense. I’ve never seen such a huge disparity in regular-season defense to playoff defense. Allen is a solid and capable defender who plays his part in the regular season, but in the playoffs he is all-world. He did an amazing job on Kobe in the finals last year, including helping force him into an 8 for 24 shooting performance in game 7.
Paul Pierce vs. LeBron James. We have seen this one before, and it can only get better. They are the two best small forwards of the generation, going toe-to-toe. They’ve hounded each other into bad offensive nights, and they’ve lit each other up, like they did in game 7 of Boston vs. Cleveland in 2008, when they went off for 45 and 41 respectively in the Celtics’ victory en route to their championship. Predictably, LeBron has had the slightly better stats, but Pierce has the hardware. Pierce represents the proverbial monkey on LeBron’s back. Can he throw him off this time around?
And of course, who could forget about Chris Bosh vs. Kevin Garnett. Bosh, once referred to as “A young Kevin Garnett” will have his chance on the biggest stage to prove he is not the forgotten man of the Big Threegos. Bosh has been a much more efficient part of the offense since his demand of getting the ball in his comfort spot. To their credit, Wade and James have delivered, and the Heat have been rolling ever since.
Since before the season started, I’ve gone back and forth approximately 153,472 times on who would win this one. It comes down to this: Can the Big Threegos cease to be LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh? To come out on top, they must be WaBron and Bosh. The reason Bosh’s stats haven’t been affected by the highs and lows of Miami’s season is because, at their worst, Miami has played a two man game with Wade or LeBron pounding the ball at the top of the key, then creating his own shot, or creating for Bosh. They cannot advance past the second round doing this. At their best, WaBron and Bosh team with the other two players on the court to create beautiful ball movement and chemistry. I say WaBron can show up for four out of seven games.
Pick: Miami 4-3*
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