(1) San Antonio vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies
The Match-ups:
PG: Tony Parker vs. Mike Conley, JR.
SG: Gary Neal/Manu Ginobili vs. Sam Young
SF: Richard Jefferson vs. Tony Allen
PF: Tim Duncan vs. Zach Randolph
C: DeJuan Blair vs. Marc Gasol
This should be very competitive, especially for a 1 vs. 8 match-up. Memphis has never won a playoff game, let a lone a series, while the Spurs have multiple championship winners filling its roster. Memphis’ bigs, however, match up very well with San Antonio’s. Not to say he’s a better player, even in this stage of Duncan’s career, but Zach Randolph has a clear statistical advantage in both points and rebounds. Likewise, Marc Gasol is a big, physical body that had a great season for the Grizz. San Antonio has 270 lbs. of DeJuan Blair to throw at him, though, and I expect both to have gaudy rebounding numbers in this one.
When the Grizzlies signed Mike Conley to that extension, I thought they were crazy. While I still think it was premature, Conley has played well enough to restore Memphis’ front office’s sanity in my eyes. Quicker at this stage in their respective careers than Tony Parker, they should be fun to watch running up and down the floor. Tony Allen has stepped in admirably for the injured Rudy Gay, easily Memphis’ best player. I like his match-up against Richard Jefferson, as Allen could completely take him out of some games. Fortunately for San Antonio, Memphis does not have a dominant shooting guard to exploit the loss of Ginobili. Manu is still listed as doubtful, but tweeted that the pain in his hyper extended elbow is almost gone. I expect a game 2 or 3 return for San Antonio’s X-Factor. I like Memphis, but not enough to pick them over the championship experience of San Antonio. Expect a huge spike in Tim Duncan’s numbers, as Poppovich limited his playing time (career low 28.4 minutes per game) with an eye towards the playoffs.
Pick: San Antonio 4-2
(2) L.A. Lakers vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets
The Match-ups:
PG: Derek Fisher vs. Chris Paul
SG: Kobe Bryant vs. Marco Belinelli
SF: Ron Artest vs. Trevor Ariza
PF: Pau Gasol vs. Carl Landry
C: Andrew Bynum vs. Emeka Okafor
New Orleans has a lot of heart, and has played well in spite of the loss of their second best player, David West, to an ACL tear. I like the Hornets, and ironically, West’s injury may be the only thing keeps him affordable, and allows New Orleans to keep their core together. With or without West, however, New Orleans is not big enough to hang with LA, as their center is shorter than LA’s third big man, Lamar Odom. The brilliance of Chris Paul is the only thing that will keep this one somewhat competitive. Kobe Bryant will abuse Marco Belinelli.
The most intriguing battle will be Ron Artest vs. Trevor Ariza. It’s a shame this one won’t be closer, for watching the two defensive specialists truly duke it out (maybe literally) would have been great to watch. However, their performances could give a more definitive answer to the Ariza vs. Artest debate. Carl Landry is a nice player, and has filled in admirably for West, but Gasol is just too big and too skilled for him. Again, Okafor is a very good, tough, and physical player, but Bynum is too big of a body. Look for LA to run away with this series early, and rest Bynum. They have had two scares with his troublesome knees in the last couple of weeks, and a third could be catastrophic to their championship hopes.
Pick: LA 4-1
(3) Dallas Mavericks vs. (6) Portland Trail Blazers
The Match-ups:
PG: Jason Kidd vs. Andre Miller
SG: Rodrigue Beaubois vs. Wesley Mathews
SF: Shawn Marion vs. Gerald Wallace
PF: Dirk Nowitzki vs. LaMarcus Aldridge
C: Tyson Chandler vs. Marcus Camby
Will the size of the Portland Trail Blazers’ shooting guards prevail, or will it be the quickness of the Roddy Beabois and Jason Terry that give the bigger guards fits? The teams are almost freakishly well matched up every where else, and the series could go as the shooting guard battle goes. Earlier in the season, I pegged Dallas as a team that cold give the Lakers fits in the playoffs, as they seemed to have the combination of size, talent, and playoff experience to do it, plus the championship hunger. Dallas immediately became less dangerous, however, when they lost Caron Butler for the season. The remaining players seemed to become disheartened when the trade deadline came and went without a trade to replace Butler’s defense and scoring, as they finished the season 1-9 against the West’s playoff teams.
Tyson Chandler will be going against his older alter-ego in Marcus Camby, and both men should man the post effectively, while Dallas has a more effective backup in the 7 footer Brendan Haywood. Seeing Lamarcus Aldridge and Dirk Nowitzki duke it out will be a spectacle, and has the makings of an all-time duel. If Dirk can get over the championship hump, he will go down as a modern day Larry Bird. As it stands now, he may be more responsible for his team’s success than any other player in the league.
Dallas’ best matchups against Portland may include Jason Terry and Deshawn Stevenson in the same backcourt. Dallas has not utilized this offensive specialist/defensive specialist combination yet, so it is unlikely to see them do it now. The wild card here is the effectiveness of Brandon Roy. Has Portland been resting him so he can play significant minutes in the playoffs, or are his knees really shot to the point where he can no longer play 30 minutes per game, even for a playoff series? If I am Nate McMillan, I am playing Roy for a total of 15 minutes in the first three quarters, before letting him play the entire fourth. Roy was well on his way to becoming a perennial All-Star before the knee problems that scared teams off in the draft acted up. I say he can be give an all-star performance for a quarter per game. I want to pick Dallas, but their recent playoff and late-season struggles suggest otherwise.
Pick: Portland 4-3
(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Denver Nuggets
(5) The Match-ups:
PG: Russell Westbrook vs. Ty Lawson
SG: James Harden vs. Aaron Afflalo
SF: Kevin Durant vs. Danilo Gallinari
PF: Serge Ibaka vs. Kenyon Martin
C: Kendrick Perkins vs. Nene
This will be the most exciting and high-scoring series in the West’s opening round. Expect multiple over times, and final scores with both teams in the 120s. For all of his exceptional gifts, Russell Westbrook will have his hands full with the dynamic duo of Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton. He will be facing two of the very few guards that are quicker than he is, and must use his strength to his advantage by posting up the smaller duo. James Harden is playing his best basketball down the stretch, and must use his size advantageously when Lawson and Felton share the backcourt. Arron Afflalo and J.R. Smith will have to knock down big threes for Denver.
Danilo Gallinari will have his spurts where he matches Durant shot for shot, but is not consistently near Durant’s level. This is Durant’s time to shine as one of the premiere players on a premiere stage. There weren’t a lot of expectations last season in his first playoff experience as an eight seed, but now is his time to prove he is on the level of Kobe, LeBron, and Wade. We may see the making of a legend an all-time performer in this one.
Serge Ibaka will have his chance to prove the “young KG” references are warranted. Kenyon Martin will do his best to dispel that theory. While his athleticism has gone with his knees, and he doesn’t stand a chance with Ibaka in a slam dunk contest, Martin is still strong as an ox, battle-tested in the playoffs, and uber-competitive. Kendrick Perkins gets his first chance to show off his championship grit to his new teammates, and will not disappoint. Earlier in the season, I wrote how lack of size would kill this team in the playoffs. By trading Jeff Green for Kendrick Perkins, Ibaka can slide into his natural position of power forward, giving the Thunder some of the best protection around the six feet in front of the basket in the league. The Thunder also brought in true center Nazr Mohammed, a starter for the Spurs’ 2005 championship team, in an underrated move. By turning a weakness into a strength, the Thunder are ready to turn some heads and contend for a championship. Now.
Pick: Thunder 4-3 in a super-thriller.
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