Wild West: Shootout at the OKC Corral

The west sure has been, well, wild. Nine combined rings between Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant could not save them from early elimination. Youth has been served, as Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant have each had iconic moments. Monkeys have been shed, as Dallas is back in the Conference Finals for the first time since ’06, after four straight disappointing exits. So, who will represent the West in the NBA Finals?

Dallas Mavericks (3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (4)

Key Match-ups:

PG: Jason Kidd vs. Russell Westbrook

SG: Jason Terry vs. James Harden

SF: Shawn Marion vs. Kevin Durant

PF: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Serge Ibaka

C: Tyson Chandler vs. Kendrick Perkins

This is the ultimate youth vs. experience battle. The Thunder has one of their best five players over the age of 22, Kendrick Perkins at an ancient 26. The Mavs are led by a 38-year-old point guard in Jason Kidd, and a bunch of title-hungry vets that sense their window of opportunity for a championship is closing rapidly.

Kidd’s days as a defensive stopper are long gone. He may not have a chance at guarding Westbrook, one of the premiere athletes in the league, one-on-one, but the 7’1” Tyson Chandler will help to curtail Westbrook’s ferocious onslaughts on the rim. Westbrook may settle for jumpers early. His inconsistency here is what separates him from MVP Derrick Rose. We have seen Westbrook be a little overconfident in his abilities, shooting too much, and forgetting he has the most gifted scorer in the league on his side in Kevin Durant.

Over-shooting did not prove fatal against Memphis, as he knew when to back off in crucial games. However, OKC was clearly the better team against he Grizzlies, and that series should not have gone seven games. In their three losses in the Semifinals, Westbrook shot 22, 22, and 23 times. In their four wins, he shot 10, 12, 22, and 33 (a triple overtime aberration) times. The Thunder is not the clear-cut better team against Dallas as they were Memphis, and overshooting from Westbrook will kill them here. Look for Kidd to allow Westbrook the jumper, while setting the pace with pinpoint passes for the Dallas offense.

James Harden played his best basketball of the season against Memphis, averaging 14 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists in the series. OKC will need more of the same against Jason Terry, who has been on a tear in the postseason, including a record nine three-pointer game in the decisive blowout against the Lakers. Terry’s hot shooting alone should win Dallas at least one game in this series.

Kevin Durant and Dirk Nowitzki might be the two toughest covers in the league. Both are damn near 7 feet tall, and are a threat to score from anywhere on the court. Dirk is slightly more post-oriented, while Durant is the better three-point shooter. Serge Ibaka will get the first crack at defending Dirk, with Shawn Marion doing the same against the Durantula. However, expect both teams to throw everything but the kitchen sink against the others’ premiere scorer. By the end of the series, we should be seeing what I think should be a rule in the NBA: the two best players on the court guarding each other. We could be looking at an epic scoring match-up here. I’m talking Bird vs. Wilkins in ’88 and LeBron vs. Pierce in ’08. If Dirk takes the series he should be handed a WWE- like belt, screaming at the top of a podium, “AAHHHHHH TAKE DAT WIT CHEW!!!!!”

Tyson Chandler is the X-Factor in this series. Without him protecting the four feet in front of the rim, Westbrook would drive right past Jason Kidd and throw down thunderous dunk after thunderous dunk. People forget Chandler was a member of the Thunder for all of one day in February of ’09, before they decided they didn’t want him. Chandler was a monster against the Thunder in the regular season. 7’1”, 235 lbs of pissed off athletic center is not something any point guard wants to drive against. I like Kendrick Perkins to do the same for OKC, if not for the fact that he is not pre-knee surgery Kendrick Perkins. His value is never measured by stats, but his dip from 7 points, 8 rebounds with the Celtics last season, to 4 and 6 with less than a block per game with OKC is pretty telling.

Dallas has been playing like a team on a mission. They haven’t lost a game since blowing that 23- point lead against Portland. I was on Dallas’ bandwagon for most of the regular season, and hopped off just in time to be made a fool of in the postseason. Consider me back on.

Pick: Dallas 4-3

(TAKE DAT WIT CHEW!!!!!!)

Beasts of the East battle for conference supremacy

Key Match-ups:

PG: Derrick Rose vs. Mario Chalmers/Mike Bibby

SG: Keith Bogans/Kyle Korver/Ronnie Brewer vs. Dwyane Wade

SF: Luol Deng vs. LeBron James

PF: Carlos Boozer/Taj Gibson vs. Chris Bosh

C: Joakim Noah vs. Joel Anthony

Tom Thibedaeu vs. WaBron

The Eastern Conference finals have been billed as MVP vs. Big Three. More specifically, the match-ups will break down as follows. Rose and Wade will cancel each other out, as they did during the regular season, each averaging 29 ppg against the other. LeBron’s scoring average for the series should be 10-15 points higher than Luol Deng’s. The other four players on the court with Rose will have to outscore the other three for Miami by that margin for the Bulls to win the series.

Expect Wade to guard Rose on the biggest possessions at the end of games. Chalmers is an excellent defender, but like just about every other point guard in the league, is overmatched physically against Rose. Conversely, Chicago has two defensive specialists in Keith Bogans and Ronnie Brewer to throw at Wade, while Kyle Korver can stop Wade from making the highlight defensive plays he has become known for by spreading the floor and hitting the three. Korver cannot guard Wade, but it is not for lack of effort. Korver has played the best defensive ball of his career this season, and is extremely scrappy. He simply lacks the lateral quickness to stay in front of Wade. This is where Tom Thibedeau and Joakim Noah come in to play, but more on them later.

Luol Deng is a premiere perimeter defender, and as good as a match-up you can ask for against LeBron. He can get you 20 points, and will nail the open three if LeBron gambles for a steal or block. The scoring margin in their two regular season match-ups was 27.5 for LeBron and 19 for Deng. If Deng can keep it that close, the Bulls will win the series, as they did in the regular season.

Carlos Boozer seems to have turned his postseason around, After a very underwhelming start, when he got outplayed by Tyler Hansbrough and Josh Smith his offensive skills re-emerged late in the Hawks series. He still can’t guard anyone, but his offense has turned around, and that’s what the Bulls need him for. Taj Gibson has been a menace defensively, and when Boozer’s offense isn’t there, often plays more minutes off the bench than the $80 million man. Gibson provides defense and rebounding, and is not slouch on offense. He can hit the midrange J and is always a threat for the emphatic put back dunk. The duo has to outplay Chris Bosh. Bosh has been a bit of an enigma in Miami this season, alternately dominating and disappearing for this team. If the Boston series was closer (see: had Shaq played) his comments about the Boston crowd getting to him could have cost Miami dearly.

Tom Thibedeau is the defensive mastermind who saw his Boston teams dispatch of both LeBron James and Dwyane Wade repeatedly. Joakim Noah is his wild card, and will prove to be the X-Factor in this series. Noah is a younger, fresher version of what he had with Kevin Garnett in Boston. He is also less of an offensive player than KG, meaning more of his energy is dedicated to defense and rebounding. Thibedeau’s specialty is a swarming defense that can shut down isolation players like Wade and James. The dynamic duo has finally become WaBron in the postseason, but Chicago, with the help defense of Noah, has the potential to split them apart again, and have one watch on the side as the other dominates the ball. Thibedeau’s defense, personified by Noah’s manic energy, will be the determining factor in this series. Home-court, where Chicago was 28-3, doesn’t hurt either.

Pick: Chicago in 7 

Chicago Bulls (1) vs. Atlanta Hawks (5)

Original pick: Chicago over Orlando 4-2

Key Match-ups:

PG: Derrick Rose vs. Jeff Teague

SG: Keith Bogans/Kyle Korver vs. Jamal Crawford

SF: Luol Deng vs. Joe Johnson

PF: Carlos Boozer vs. Josh Smith

C: Joakim Noah vs. Al Horford

            Chicago got here by impressing nobody in defeating the Indiana Pacers 4-1. The Hawks got to this round by shocking the NBA world, defeating Superman and his Muggle teammates. Chicago needs to step up and play like the top seed everyone expected to see coming into the postseason. DRose has been his spectacular self, carrying the Bulls through round 1. Second year man Jeff Teague replaces former Bull Kirk Hinrich (hand injury) in the unenviable role of trying to stop Rose. Teague has his coach’s confidence, stating he is the quickest player on the team, and has the best shot of anyone on the roster in containing the MVP. Atlanta also has the long, athletic wing and post players to help Teague and make life difficult for Rose. Regardless, expect him to find a way to have a monster series, as he has done so all season. In game 1, you couldn’t have asked the Hawks to play better D on Rose, and he still came away with 24/10/5.

            Rose’s dominance is not in question, but he needs a little help from his friends. Specifically, Carlos Boozer needs to start earning the $80 million the Bulls paid him to be the post presence this franchise hasn’t had since they traded away Elton Brand. It’s not so much his underwhelming stats (14/8 in game 1) it is the way  he is underperforming. Instead of simply missing a shot, Boozer’s mishaps often result in a four-point swing the other way. I saw it numerous times against the Pacers, and on several more occasions on Monday night. The Bulls have to find a way to get Boozer going. He will be trying to break free from his slump against one of the premiere athletes in the game in Josh Smith. Smith can be a complete game changer on the defensive end, and will be there to help curtail Rose. Boozer cannot be outscored by Smith if the Bulls want to be playing the next round.

            Luol Deng, on the other hand, has looked like a legitimate All-Star and Robin to Derrick Rose’s Batman. If there has been a huge non-Rose play for Chicago in the playoffs, it has come from Deng. He gets the tough buckets, driving across the lane, through contact, finishing with an assortment of runners and lay-ins around the goal. He’s always been an exceptional perimeter defender. Joe Johnson will continue to play a huge role in this series, but he will not have another night like Game 1 (12/18 from the field, 5/5 from the three point line).

             Both the Hawks and Bulls have a closer and three-point extraordinaire in the forms of Jamal Crawford and Kyle Korver. Crawford is the better all-around player, and, with his quickness, is a difficult cover for Korver. Tom Thibedeau will be earning his Coach of the Year Award in this series, as he will have to do a lot offense-defense substituting at the end of the games with Korver and Keith Bogans or, preferably, Ronnie Brewer. Brewer has the capability of shutting down Crawford, while Bogans can give the Bulls a big boost at the start by knocking down open threes. Korver hit huge threes off Rose’s penetration late in games to help them get out of Indiana. He held up his end of the bargain again on Monday night, but the Bulls could not stop a red-hot Joe Johnson.

            Joakim Noah vs. Al Horford is one of the most intriguing match-ups in the playoffs. The former teammates won two NCAA titles together at Florida. Both are slightly undersized as centers, so it should come as somewhat of a relief to be playing the other, as opposed to Dwight Howard. Noah is the more energetic scrapper, while Horford has the more polished (and much better looking) offensive game. Their contributions should cancel each other out, as Horford will get slightly more points, but Noah should have a small edge in rebounds and blocked shots. The relationship of the former teammates will be strained in this one, as they duke it out in a long series.

            Atlanta has been playing out of its mind thus far in the playoffs, where Chicago has yet to peak. I expect things to balance out some in this one.

Modified Pick: Chicago 4-3

The Wild West: Round 2

Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (8)

Original pick: Thunder over Spurs 4-2

Key Match-ups:

PG: Russell Westbrook vs. Mike Conley, Jr.

SG: James Harden vs. Sam Young

SF: Kevin Durant vs. Tony Allen

PF: Serge Ibaka vs. Zach Randolph

C: Kendrick Perkins vs. Marc Gasol

Congratulations are deserved for the Memphis Grizzlies. They won the first playoff series in their franchise’s history, defeating the heavily favored San Antonio Spurs, they of the 62 wins and multiple championships, handily in six games. They simultaneously have ended any chance Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan had of winning a fifth title. And they did it with their best player, Rudy Gay, watching from the bench. They did it with size, as Zach Randlolph and Marc Gasol easily handled the aged duo of Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess. They also did it with defense, as Mike Conley, JR. and Tony Allen did an effective job locking down Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker.

Now they take on the Oklahoma City Thunder. The brute force tandem will face an even bruter force in the Human Tree Trunk, Kendrick Perkins, and an athletic freak in the shot-blocking Serge Ibaka. Memphis’ duo will undoubtedly outscore OKC’s, as Ibaka and Perkins are generally the fourth and fifth options on the floor, but the Thunder should do a much better job containing Randolph and Gasol than San Antonio’s bigs.

Tony Allen is as good of a perimeter defender as you can have to put on Kevin Durant, but Durant has stepped up to a level where the only thing that can stop him as an off shooting night. Mike Conley was younger, quicker, and fresher than Tony Parker. He has none of those advantages on Russell Westbrook, who can add size and athleticism to his list of advantages over his counterpart. Conley is a good player, and should still hold a solid stat line, but “DRose West” is as difficult a cover for a point guard in this league.

Athleticism and youth were huge team advantages for the Grizz against an aging San Antonio team. Neither team has a clear advantage in those departments in this round. I say the Thunder’s bigs can contain Memphis’ better than Memphis’ perimeter D can stop the dynamic duo of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.

Pick: Thunder 4-3

Los Angeles Lakers (2) vs. Dallas Mavericks (3)

Original pick: Lakers over Blazers 4-1

Key Match-ups:

PG: Derek Fisher vs. Jason Kidd

SG: Kobe Bryant vs. Jason Terry

SF: Ron Artest vs. Shawn Marion

PF: Pau Gasol vs. Dirk Nowitzki

C: Andrew Bynum vs. Tyson Chandler

I’m kicking myself for picking Portland in the previous round. I had Dallas the hole time. Then, I overanalyzed, though about it too much, and now feel like a fool for changing my pick. Anyway, on to the task at hand… LA has hardly looked like world beaters thus far, receiving a scare from a far inferior New Orleans Hornets team. CP3 should have been good for one win, not two, and certainly not the first game of the series. Remember, though the Lakers pulled the same stunt against eight seed Oklahoma City last season on their way to the championship.

Dallas has the best Kobe stopper a team could ask for. Unfortunately, he is wearing a suit and tie, recovering from midseason knee surgery. In the absence of Caron Butler, Dallas is left with a crop of undersized (Jason Terry) and underwhelming (DeShawn Stevenson) shooting guards. The most effective lineup Dallas may have against LA is having Peja Stojakavich at small forward with Marion, the team’s best perimeter defender, sliding over to the 2 to play Kobe. I would love to see Corey Brewer get a crack, but he barely played against Portland. Artest may abuse Peja down low, but I like the idea of a 6’10” Peja on ‘Test, rather than a 6’2” Jason Terry on one of the greatest scorers of all time. At the same time, Terry is their second best scorer, and they need productive minutes from him. Rick Carlisle will have to work some match-up magic to keep this one close, or Kobe will abuse Dallas’ standard 2-guard platoon.

Pau Gasol had a tough time with Carl Landry, which is bad news for Lakers fans, as Dirk may be the most difficult cover in the league. Granted, Dirk doesn’t have the scrappy tenacity of Landry that bothered Gasol, but Dirk will keep him off the boards with his perimeter scoring, opening up the lane for the rest of the offense. If Gasol doesn’t get going down low early, he may be waiting another round to snap out of his slump. Tyson Chandler was a beast against Portland, and a huge reason why the Mavs advanced. As Andrew Bynum looks more and more like LA’s second best player, Chandler’s defense on Bynum will be huge. LA already has a huge Kobe advantage. Dallas cannot allow LA to have any advantage in the post, or this one will be over quickly.

Modified pick: Lakers 4-2*.

*It really is a shame Butler isn’t healthy for this one. I thought Dallas had a chance to knock off the champs at the start of the season. If Dallas’ aging vets can stay sharp and extend its championship window one more year, I like the Mavs to make a run in 2012.