Key Match-ups:
PG: Derrick Rose vs. Mario Chalmers/Mike Bibby
SG: Keith Bogans/Kyle Korver/Ronnie Brewer vs. Dwyane Wade
SF: Luol Deng vs. LeBron James
PF: Carlos Boozer/Taj Gibson vs. Chris Bosh
C: Joakim Noah vs. Joel Anthony
Tom Thibedaeu vs. WaBron
The Eastern Conference finals have been billed as MVP vs. Big Three. More specifically, the match-ups will break down as follows. Rose and Wade will cancel each other out, as they did during the regular season, each averaging 29 ppg against the other. LeBron’s scoring average for the series should be 10-15 points higher than Luol Deng’s. The other four players on the court with Rose will have to outscore the other three for Miami by that margin for the Bulls to win the series.
Expect Wade to guard Rose on the biggest possessions at the end of games. Chalmers is an excellent defender, but like just about every other point guard in the league, is overmatched physically against Rose. Conversely, Chicago has two defensive specialists in Keith Bogans and Ronnie Brewer to throw at Wade, while Kyle Korver can stop Wade from making the highlight defensive plays he has become known for by spreading the floor and hitting the three. Korver cannot guard Wade, but it is not for lack of effort. Korver has played the best defensive ball of his career this season, and is extremely scrappy. He simply lacks the lateral quickness to stay in front of Wade. This is where Tom Thibedeau and Joakim Noah come in to play, but more on them later.
Luol Deng is a premiere perimeter defender, and as good as a match-up you can ask for against LeBron. He can get you 20 points, and will nail the open three if LeBron gambles for a steal or block. The scoring margin in their two regular season match-ups was 27.5 for LeBron and 19 for Deng. If Deng can keep it that close, the Bulls will win the series, as they did in the regular season.
Carlos Boozer seems to have turned his postseason around, After a very underwhelming start, when he got outplayed by Tyler Hansbrough and Josh Smith his offensive skills re-emerged late in the Hawks series. He still can’t guard anyone, but his offense has turned around, and that’s what the Bulls need him for. Taj Gibson has been a menace defensively, and when Boozer’s offense isn’t there, often plays more minutes off the bench than the $80 million man. Gibson provides defense and rebounding, and is not slouch on offense. He can hit the midrange J and is always a threat for the emphatic put back dunk. The duo has to outplay Chris Bosh. Bosh has been a bit of an enigma in Miami this season, alternately dominating and disappearing for this team. If the Boston series was closer (see: had Shaq played) his comments about the Boston crowd getting to him could have cost Miami dearly.
Tom Thibedeau is the defensive mastermind who saw his Boston teams dispatch of both LeBron James and Dwyane Wade repeatedly. Joakim Noah is his wild card, and will prove to be the X-Factor in this series. Noah is a younger, fresher version of what he had with Kevin Garnett in Boston. He is also less of an offensive player than KG, meaning more of his energy is dedicated to defense and rebounding. Thibedeau’s specialty is a swarming defense that can shut down isolation players like Wade and James. The dynamic duo has finally become WaBron in the postseason, but Chicago, with the help defense of Noah, has the potential to split them apart again, and have one watch on the side as the other dominates the ball. Thibedeau’s defense, personified by Noah’s manic energy, will be the determining factor in this series. Home-court, where Chicago was 28-3, doesn’t hurt either.
Pick: Chicago in 7
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