Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (8)
Original pick: Thunder over Spurs 4-2
Key Match-ups:
PG: Russell Westbrook vs. Mike Conley, Jr.
SG: James Harden vs. Sam Young
SF: Kevin Durant vs. Tony Allen
PF: Serge Ibaka vs. Zach Randolph
C: Kendrick Perkins vs. Marc Gasol
Congratulations are deserved for the Memphis Grizzlies. They won the first playoff series in their franchise’s history, defeating the heavily favored San Antonio Spurs, they of the 62 wins and multiple championships, handily in six games. They simultaneously have ended any chance Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan had of winning a fifth title. And they did it with their best player, Rudy Gay, watching from the bench. They did it with size, as Zach Randlolph and Marc Gasol easily handled the aged duo of Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess. They also did it with defense, as Mike Conley, JR. and Tony Allen did an effective job locking down Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker.
Now they take on the Oklahoma City Thunder. The brute force tandem will face an even bruter force in the Human Tree Trunk, Kendrick Perkins, and an athletic freak in the shot-blocking Serge Ibaka. Memphis’ duo will undoubtedly outscore OKC’s, as Ibaka and Perkins are generally the fourth and fifth options on the floor, but the Thunder should do a much better job containing Randolph and Gasol than San Antonio’s bigs.
Tony Allen is as good of a perimeter defender as you can have to put on Kevin Durant, but Durant has stepped up to a level where the only thing that can stop him as an off shooting night. Mike Conley was younger, quicker, and fresher than Tony Parker. He has none of those advantages on Russell Westbrook, who can add size and athleticism to his list of advantages over his counterpart. Conley is a good player, and should still hold a solid stat line, but “DRose West” is as difficult a cover for a point guard in this league.
Athleticism and youth were huge team advantages for the Grizz against an aging San Antonio team. Neither team has a clear advantage in those departments in this round. I say the Thunder’s bigs can contain Memphis’ better than Memphis’ perimeter D can stop the dynamic duo of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.
Pick: Thunder 4-3
Los Angeles Lakers (2) vs. Dallas Mavericks (3)
Original pick: Lakers over Blazers 4-1
Key Match-ups:
PG: Derek Fisher vs. Jason Kidd
SG: Kobe Bryant vs. Jason Terry
SF: Ron Artest vs. Shawn Marion
PF: Pau Gasol vs. Dirk Nowitzki
C: Andrew Bynum vs. Tyson Chandler
I’m kicking myself for picking Portland in the previous round. I had Dallas the hole time. Then, I overanalyzed, though about it too much, and now feel like a fool for changing my pick. Anyway, on to the task at hand… LA has hardly looked like world beaters thus far, receiving a scare from a far inferior New Orleans Hornets team. CP3 should have been good for one win, not two, and certainly not the first game of the series. Remember, though the Lakers pulled the same stunt against eight seed Oklahoma City last season on their way to the championship.
Dallas has the best Kobe stopper a team could ask for. Unfortunately, he is wearing a suit and tie, recovering from midseason knee surgery. In the absence of Caron Butler, Dallas is left with a crop of undersized (Jason Terry) and underwhelming (DeShawn Stevenson) shooting guards. The most effective lineup Dallas may have against LA is having Peja Stojakavich at small forward with Marion, the team’s best perimeter defender, sliding over to the 2 to play Kobe. I would love to see Corey Brewer get a crack, but he barely played against Portland. Artest may abuse Peja down low, but I like the idea of a 6’10” Peja on ‘Test, rather than a 6’2” Jason Terry on one of the greatest scorers of all time. At the same time, Terry is their second best scorer, and they need productive minutes from him. Rick Carlisle will have to work some match-up magic to keep this one close, or Kobe will abuse Dallas’ standard 2-guard platoon.
Pau Gasol had a tough time with Carl Landry, which is bad news for Lakers fans, as Dirk may be the most difficult cover in the league. Granted, Dirk doesn’t have the scrappy tenacity of Landry that bothered Gasol, but Dirk will keep him off the boards with his perimeter scoring, opening up the lane for the rest of the offense. If Gasol doesn’t get going down low early, he may be waiting another round to snap out of his slump. Tyson Chandler was a beast against Portland, and a huge reason why the Mavs advanced. As Andrew Bynum looks more and more like LA’s second best player, Chandler’s defense on Bynum will be huge. LA already has a huge Kobe advantage. Dallas cannot allow LA to have any advantage in the post, or this one will be over quickly.
Modified pick: Lakers 4-2*.
*It really is a shame Butler isn’t healthy for this one. I thought Dallas had a chance to knock off the champs at the start of the season. If Dallas’ aging vets can stay sharp and extend its championship window one more year, I like the Mavs to make a run in 2012.
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