The AL East

The AL East

*Now with predicted record finishes*

New York Yankees

Predicted finish: 99-63

Best-case scenario: The Yankees live up to the annual World Series hype and win it all. Jeter slips back into the number 2 spot in the order with ease, proving last season was one bad fluke out of 16 seasons, not the start of a trend. Brett Gardner can continue his upswing in production, and bats closer to .300 with an on base percentage around .400. Russell Martin can handle the staff as the replacement for longtime backstop Jorge Posada as the every day catcher. C.C. Sabathia has another Cy Young-caliber season, while A.J. Burnett pitches like the second pitcher he is paid to be. Phil Hughes continues on his breakout season, and the top three can anchor the pitching staff. With no Kerry Wood to bail him out, Joba Chamberlain has to pitch like the phenom he once was, to get the ball to the ageless Mariano Rivera at the end of the game. Look for the Yankees to poach the best pitcher off of the first team to tank unexpectedly.

Worst-case scenario: Jeter continues to show his age, while A-Rod and Posada (now the DH) follow suit. The Yankees don’t have options at shortstop after giving Jeter the pricy contract he was looking for. Burnett has another terrible season, and Hughes’ ERA continues to hover around 4.00. The staff tanks, while age and youth don’t mix for the offense. Joba continues to underachieve, and the team has trouble bridging the gap between the starters and Rivera .The Yanks are the most expensive third place team in baseball.

Boston Red Sox

Predicted finish: 97-65

Best-case scenario: The Red Sox’ expensive offseason results in overtaking the Yanks and returning to the playoffs after a one-year hiatus. Adrian Gonzalez backs up his offseason talk and is the Yankees’ killer the team has lacked since they traded away Manny. Carl Crawford is the sparkplug, and with 40+ steals gives the offense a unique blend of speed and power that will drive the rest of the AL East crazy. John Lackey, Josh Beckett, and Daisuke Matsuzaka pitch like their paid too (all three had ERAs above 4.40), and with Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz, the Red Sox have a pitching staff as dominant as they look on paper. Jonathan Papelbohn gets over his perceived slights on his status as the team’s closer, and has another dominant season with Daniel Bard to make games against Boston a seven-inning affair.

Worst-case scenario: Boston’s staff underachieves again, and the explosive offense isn’t enough to give the Red Sox a run in October. Papelbohn’s paranoia turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy, and there becomes a closer controversy with former 40 save guy Bobby Jenks and/or the young gun Bard.  The chemistry isn’t there for the Sox, and they can’t stave off Tampa for third, let alone take out the Yankees for the division.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Predicted finish: 96-66

Best-case scenario: The infusion of World Series talent in the forms of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez offset the loss of two of the team’s most productive performers. The Rays again follow a strong pitching staff and clutch hitting back to the playoffs and make another series run. David Price sustains or improves on his 2010 brilliance, and “Big Game” James lives up to the nickname. 23-year-old Jeremy Hellickson can build on the 4-0 3.47 ERA taste he gave the Rays last season, while Wade Davis and Jeff Nieman can be effective near the end of the rotation. The team lost a lot of pop, and will need staff to be every bit as good as the 2010 version to make an impact in October.

Worst-case scenario: Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez can’t replace the lost talent, while Manny disrupts the team’s chemistry. Matt Garza was an underrated loss, but if one of the young guys can’t replace his production, his loss will be felt. Kyle Farnsworth (who along with Armando Benitez lead the best stuff/worst production hall of fame) can’t get it done as the closer, and the team seems a lot of late leads slip away.

Baltimore Orioles

Predicted finish: 81-81

Best-case scenario: The team builds off a strong finish to the season after Buck Showalter took over. The Fightin’ Showalters had a very quiet, but efficient offseason. They brought in Derrek Lee, who should be their best first basemen since Rafael Palmeiro’s first stint with the team. They also brought in Vladimir Guerrero, who had a great season (.300/29/115) in his first as a full-time DH with Texas in 2010. Mark Reynolds has plenty of pop, and the O’s will hope his season around the Mendoza line was a fluke. Even if he doesn’t quite return to his back-to-back 20-homer form in 07/08, J.J. Hardy should be their most productive shortstop since they traded Miguel Tejada. The big question mark is the pitching staff, as there is little proven talent here. Jeremy Guthrie enters the season as their ace, and he was three games under .500 last season. Brian Matusz finished the season 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA after Showalter took over, so there is cause for some optimism. The Orioles must get production out of their staff to be competitive. If the pitching produces, there’s no reason this team can’t copy the 2008 Rays’ blueprint, and have an unexpected worst-to-first campaign.

Worst-case scenario: Mark Reynolds continues hits below .200 again, Derrek Lee can’t stay healthy at first, and the imports can’t help the young outfield put runs on the board. The staff falls apart, and the O’s are again out of the race by May. Buck Showalter is forced to eat his words after calling out the Red Sox and Yankees. The Orioles have the talent to be productive, but it’s all about the pitching.

Toronto Blue Jays

Predicted finish: 70-92

Best-case scenario: The Blue Jays again follow the Earl Weaver-approved method of winning via the three-run homer. The Jays surprised a lot of people last season by finishing 8 games above .500, and will need more of the same to compete again. While overpaid, Vernon Wells was still by far the club’s most productive player in the outfield. 23-year-old Travis Snyder will have to have a breakout season to help replace that loss of production. Expecting 54 homers from Jose Bautista again is a long shot, but another 40 would go a long way in helping this team remain competitive. Ricky Romero anchors a young staff that will need to produce. Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil Kyle Drabek, and Jesse Litsch are all under 26 years old, and represent the post-Roy Halladay rebuilding project.

Worst-case scenario: The career season guys come back to earth. Jose Bautista had never had more than 16 home runs in a season before coming out of nowhere for his 54. Travis Snyder can’t replace Wells’ production in the lineup. The pitching staff is too young and ineffective to carry a suddenly less potent offense, and the optimism from last season’ feel-good run are wiped out quickly.

National League West

Wasn’t it around this time last year that people were referring to this division as the NL Worst? Then the Giants stormed through the playoffs with a dominant rotation, clutch hitting, and eccentric closer. Does any team stand a chance of knocking them off the top of the West?

San Francisco Giants

Best-case scenario: The Giants follow the same formula as last season back to the Series. Top to bottom, this team may be the only one in the National League that can stop the Phillies in their quest for glory. An NLCS match-up would seem to be an epic, seven game affair. This team’s biggest star has people asking when the kid from Dazed and Confused got an arm from God. That didn’t stop them from winning it all, however. San Francisco may be without a superstar, but there is not an easy out in this lineup. The Giants’ first four starters had ERAs around 3.5 or better, and their fifth happens to be their highest paid player, Barry Zito (who made $18.5 million). Offensively, the only potential for some true star power is in the slimmed down form of Pablo Sandoval. “Kung Fu Panda” saw his batting average plummet from .330 in his rookie season to .268. The ability is still there, and some of it may have been from bad luck, as his balls hit in play for outs ratio was unusually high. A season back around .300 seems in line for Sandoval. Other than that, the Giants will have to again rely on quality over quantity hitting from dependable veterans Aubrey Huff, Miguel Tejada, Pat Burrell, and Freddy Sanchez. At the end of the game, Brian Wilson and his beard should remain intimidating suspects no one wants to face at the end of the game.

Worst-case scenario: World Series hangover. The team can’t handle the pressure of a target on their back, and don’t play with the same hunger of the championship campaign. Sandoval continues the downward trend, and hits in the .250’s or worse, and the team’s clutch hitting doesn’t carry over from last season. Satisfied with the championship, the player’s interests now turn to stats and contracts, while they lose the division, and can’t make another October run.

Colorado Rockies

Best-case scenario: The balanced roster follows the lead of stars Ubaldo Jimenez and Troy Tulowitzki to sneak by the Giants and win the division. This fun-loving group makes another late season run, bringing back the Rocktober phenomenon. Left fielder Carlos Gonzalez continues the pace he set with his breakout season to pair up with Tulo, giving the Rockies a devastating 1-2 punch in the middle of the order. Todd Helton bounces back from a down year and has another season hitting around .300 to bump him into “ageless” status. The middle relief is solid with Matt Belisle and Ryan Betancourt, and they may be counted on a lot with a questionable rotation. Outside of Jimenez, none of the starters were more than one game above .500. When healthy, there aren’t many closers out there better than Huston Street.

Worst-case scenario: The Rockies continue to get little production from starters 2-5. An otherwise deep and talented roster goes to waste, and the Rockies hang around .500, missing the playoffs again. Todd Helton continues to falter in the twilight of his career, the Rockies are stuck looking for a long-term replacement at first base, and are faced with the possibility of saying goodbye to the long-time face of the franchise.

Los Angelas Dodgers: Welcome everyone to this season’s edition of Divorce McCourt.

Best-case scenario: The roster ushers in the Don Mattingly era by ignoring the noise upstairs, and playing their brand of baseball. Manny Ramirez is gone, and that should be a classic case of addition by subtraction. The team relies on its pitching staff anchored by promising ace Clayton Kershaw, solid number 2 Clay Billingsley, and dependable veteran Ted Lilly. The offense holds up its end of the bargain. There is no one on the roster that is going to challenge Albert Pujols for stats and accolades (Matt Kemp led the club in homers and RBI with 28 and 89, respectively), but 1 through 8 seem very solid. Jay Gibbons continues his feel-good comeback story. Jonathan Broxton translates his 100 mph fastball into more consistent production, as he only had 22 saves, and an ERA over four. Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Juan Uribe, and James Loney give LA a productive and slick-fielding infield, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are the team’s two best hitters in the outfield. This team has the potential, now it’ s just a matter of production.

Worst-case scenario: The ongoing divorce saga handcuffs the team’s payroll even more. If the team is out of the playoffs by the trade deadline, they could be big sellers. A rebuilding process with wavering leadership in the front office could be a slow and painful drag for Dodgers fans.

San Diego Padres

Best-case scenario: Matt Latos can be the Padres’ version of Tim Lincecum. The 23-year-old ace gave Padres fans reason for hope with his 14-10/2.92 ERA/192 strikeout performance in his 2010 campaign. Clayton Richard can build on his 14-9 season, giving the Padres a legitimate 1-2 punch at the start of the rotation. Tim Stauffer is a live arm coming out of the bullpen to try his hand in the rotation, and if Aaron Harang returns to the 200 strikeout per season pitcher he was in Cincinatti, the Padres will have a complete rotation that can match up well with anyone’s. Heath Bell had one of the best seasons in the league for a closer last season. Brad Hawpe, Ryan Ludwick, and Jason Bartlett will need to return to their performances of seasons past in order to give the offense the needed pop to support the pitching.

Worst-case scenario: The Padres can’t get enough support behind Latos in the pitching staff. Hawpe, Ludwick, and Bartlett continue the downward trends of their recent pasts. A one-pitcher rotation and a weak offense result in a last-place finish in the NL West.  

The NL Central

No one in baseball benefitted from the injury to Adam Wainwright more than the Reds and Brewers. This likely is a two-team race now, as the Cubs, Astros, and Pirates appear to be in some semblance of rebuilding and/or implosion mode. With Wainwright, the Cardinals probably had enough to make a run, now, not so much. So cui bono? Gotta be…

The Milwaukee Brewers (That’s right: The Brewers!!)

Best-case scenario: The Brew Crew follows a powerful lineup and a talented pitching staff to their first playoff berth since C.C. Sabathia picked them up and carried them there with his left arm in 2008. The Brewers are much deeper and more talented than the ‘08 version. Zack Greinke anchors the deep and talented pitching staff (their number 5 starter, Chris Narveson was 12-9) back into the postseason with their first division championship since 1982. John Axford is a gifted young arm closing, and should get more opportunities to finish things off in his second season on the job. In order to be a true threat, Prince Fielder will need to come closer to his .299 battering average and 141 RBI he had in 2009 than his .261/83 RBI campaign he had in 2010. Ryan Bran, Corey Hart, Casey McGhee, and Rickie Weeks offer plenty of support, but the big fella has to produce.

Worst-case scenario: Zack Greinke can’t handle his new town (the broken rib isn’t a good start), and melts down again, leaving this staff without an ace. John Axford proves to be a one-year wonder, and the Brewers don’t have a backup plan. Prince Fielder continues his downward slope in consistency and a lot of runners are left on base in key situations, while the rest of the offense doesn’t provide enough pop to overcome the now mediocre pitching staff.

The Cincinnati Reds

Best-case scenario: The Reds improve on last season’s club that was in the race for the division all year, and won the Wild Card for their first postseason appearance since 1999. Joey Votto has another MVP-caliber season, and Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, and Jonny Gomes support their slugger with more of the same from last season. Edinson Volquez returns to his 17-win breakout season form of 2008, and Homer Bailey has a career year to back up the hype that’s been swirling around him since he was made the number seven overall pick in 2004. Aroldis Chapman continues to be the phenom he was last season, while Francisco Cordero has another 40 save season.

Worst-case scenario: Joey Votto can’t hold up to the standards of his 2010 campaign. The rest of the offense; Phillips, Rolen, and Bruce, are great complementary pieces, but without another dominant season from Votto, there is no one to complement. Aroldis Chapman goes the way of Joel Zumaya and Stephen Strasburg, bringing more ammunition to the “maybe the human arm just isn’t meant to throw a baseball that fast” argument, leaving the team without a consistent setup man. Francisco Cordero’s high ERA for a closer (3.84) leads to more blown saves than last season, and the Reds can’t get their first back-t-back playoff appearances since the Big Red Machine did it in 1975-76.

Chicago Cubs

Best-case scenario: This club’s considerable talent comes together and the Cubbies can make a serious run at their first championship since 1908. Alfonso Soriano puts all his ability into one dominant season, giving the Cubs an explosive 1-2 punch with Aramis Ramirez. Speaking of Ramirez, he must prove his .241/25/83 campaign was a fluke, not the start of a trend, and get back to the .280/30/100 player we know and love. Carlos Pena brings his home runs and RBI from Tampa to Wrigley, protecting the other big bats in the lineup. Starlin Castro is a spark plug at the top of the order, while Geovany Soto is as solid a catcher as a club could ask for. Carlos Zambrano can bottle his ace potential, allowing Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza to slip back into the roles their ability dictates: as second and third starters on a good team, not 1-2. Kerry Wood continues the set-up dominance he displayed in New York, while Carlos Marmol has another impressive season as the closer.

Worst-case scenario: A roster full of overpaid athletes underperforms. Again. Soriano disappoints, and Carlos Pena brings the low batting average and high strikeout rate to Wrigley, leaving the homers and RBI in Tropicana. Marlon Byrd proves he was a one-year wonder, never again sniffing another all-star team. Starlin Castro joins a long line of Cubs phenoms to disappoint, and isn’t the answer at shortstop. Zambrano melts down again, leaving Garza and Dempster to carry an otherwise subpar pitching staff. Wood and Marmol may again have great stats, but setup men and closers can’t win games if the starters can’t give effective innings. If the Cubs free fall and Zambrano remains composed and impressive, look for the Yankees to be knocking on that door. Hard.

St. Louis Cardinals:

Best-case scenario: Someone can step in and win 15-20 games in Adam Wainwright’s place. With Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, the Cards had a 1-2 punch that could go toe-to-toe with anyone’s in baseball. Now there are a lot of question marks. 24-year-old lefty Jaime Garcia seems to be the only option in-house to break out and have an ace’ impact. His 13-8 record with a 2.70 ERA and 132 strikeouts in his first season starting is very promising. Albert Pujols has another MVP caliber season, while Matt Holliday is the Robin to his Batman. Lance Berkman can turn back the clock and team with impressive 24-year-old center fielder Colby Rasmus (.276/23/66) as the supporting bats this club needs behind the big boys.

Worst-case scenario: The Cardinals continue the downward slope that started well before the season. With Wainwright, their 1-2 combination was dominant enough they had a puncher’s chance in the playoffs to make a championship run. Now, with their ace gone (he led the club in every starters’ major statistic) the pitching staff is in shambles, and the Albert Pujols drama will only get worse the further we get into the season, and the more games the Cards lose. Again, look for the Yankees to play the role of the vulture for Chris Carpenter as soon as this team is out of playoff contention.

Houston Astros:

Best-case scenario: Somebody cloned the 25-year-old versions of Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, and the Killer Bs are Back Baby!!! Seriously, though, this team seems in full rebuilding mode, and look to have no interest in competing in 2011. However, to give some Astros fans out there some hope… Carlos Lee returns to his .300, 30 homer, 100 RBI form of seasons past, while Hunter Pence improves on his 25 homer 91 RBI season. Clint Barmes can return to his “Rocktober” form and hits 20+ dingers to improve this rancid offense. Thus, Wandy Rodriguez can get the necessary run support to get more than the 25 combined wins his 3.30 ERA over the past two seasons dictate. Brett Myers can recapture his number 2 stuff he had off-and-on with the Phillies, and J.A. Happ can combine his 2009 and 2010 seasons into one 18-8 3.25 ERA extravaganza.

Worst-case scenario: Pence and Lee are the only two players on offense that look like they belong in the Major Leagues, while Wandy Rodriguez’ low ERA goes to waste for the third season in a row (we call this the Roy Oswalt effect). The Astros trade away their only real big league talent for more prospects, and continue to break down the club for the rebuilding era.

Pittsburgh Pirates:

Best-case scenario: A terrible plane crash eliminates the rest of the competition, leaving the Pirates as your de facto 2011 MLB champions!!! (Note: It was either that or I led with the dropping down to triple A joke. But I go for dramatic effect). Seriously though, the thing Bucs fans could hope for is this team actually decides to compete at a major league level. You could build an entire all-star team based on the talent this team has traded for prospects, only to do the same thing once those prospects turn into viable major league options. You’re talking to a man with a soft spot in his heart for the Pirates, but why waste fans’ loyalty and money if you’re just going to be a farm system for the Yankees, Red Sox and the rest of the Major Leagues?? And don’t give me that “they are a small market” malarkey. Look at the other small markets that have kept their own talent and competed: The Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies, and Cincinnati Reds, just to name a few. That’s it. I’m done. Talk to me when you decide to compete again, Pirates’ ownership. 

MLB Season Preview

It’s March, and it is time again to start thinking about baseball. It’s a fresh season, and all fans of all teams, (ok, maybe not the Pirates) have reason to be optimistic this time around. So without further ado, it’s time for a season preview, SportsDude style. Each team will be listed in order of their projected finish, with best and worst case scenarios. First, let’s start out with…

The National League East

It’s tough to go toe-to-toe with their American League counterparts in headline buzz generated during the offseason, but in one fell swoop, the Phillies may have beaten both the Red Sox and Yankees in the hype department with their signing of Cliff Lee. However, this is a deep and talented group, and no one is going to roll over for the Phillies to win the division for the fifth year in a row.

Philadelphia Philies

Best-case scenario: With all the offseason hoopla over this vaunted pitching staff, anything less than a second World Series championship for manager Charlie Manuel and company will be considered a disappointment. That being said, Lee, Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt must dominate as expected. This team, on paper, has the best starting rotation since the Baltimore Orioles had 4 starters win 20 games in 1971. With all-stars Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins, the offense should have more than enough firepower to hold up their end of the bargain.

Worst-case scenario: The Philies wilt under the Yankeesian pressure of a championship or bust season. For all the talent and low ERAs, only Doc Halladay finished with a record more than three wins over .500 last season. Though unlikely, Lee and Halladay could have alpha dog issues that disrupt the chemistry, especially when it comes time to select the number one starter for the playoffs. Raul Ibanez begins to show his age, and Ben Francisco can’t handle replacing the popular and multi-talented Jayson Werth. Brad Lidge and the bullpen break down again, and the Phillies don’t win the division, let alone the Series. How many cars would be destroyed in Philadelphia if this happened?

Atlanta Braves

Best case scenario: This team may have the best combination of young and veteran talent in the league. Jayson Heyward proved all the hype around him was warranted last season, and should build on a promising rookie year. Atlanta also brought in slugging second baseman Dan Uggla to provide some much needed pop in the middle of the lineup. Rookie Freddie Freeman will look to be this year’s Heyward, and provide the best long-term option Atlanta’s had at first base since Fred McGriff was taking a bite out of fastballs in the ‘90’s. Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson will continue to anchor a young and talented pitching staff, and the Braves kick off the post-Bobby Cox era with yet another postseason appearance.

What could go wrong: Freeman is not the answer at first, and Heyward gets another injury that leads to a sophomore slump. Chipper Jones doesn’t return to form after tearing his ACL, killing the heart of the team, and leaving a hole at third base. Dan Uggla struggles adapting to a new team, and his suspect defense leaves Atlanta with a weak-fielding right side of the infield without the pop to make up for it. Veterans Derek Lowe, and/or Tim Hudson go down with injury, and the young staff takes a step back in their development.

Florida Marlins

Worst Case Scenario: They dust off the blueprint for the 1997 and 2003 championsip winning teams, following a young and talented roster all the way to the World Series. Josh Johnson must dominate again, and Javier Vasquez must return to his any-team-but-the-Yankees form for this to happen. Ricky Nolasco and Chris Volstad lower their ERAs (both around 4.5) and Anibal Sanchez gets a little bit luckier in his starts, as he had 3.55 ERA but only went 13-12.

Worst-case scenario: Javier Vazquez proves last season’s debacle was the result of serious loss of stuff, rather than the pressures of pitching in New York, and the rest of the young staff can’t keep it together behind Johnson. Gaby Sanchez doesn’t build on his breakthrough season, leaving a serious hole in the lineup where light-hitting Omar Infante replaced the slugga Uggla (he should market that as his nickname) at second. The young outfield can’t get the job done and this team is out of the race by June.

New York Mets

Best Case scenario: The Mets live up to their payroll, and get into the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Jason Bay fits into the Big Apple seamlessly, and continues with the production he has had thus far in his career, while a position switch for Carlos Beltran keeps him healthy and gets him back on track offensively. R.A. Dickey gets more run support for more wins (12 last season) than his 2.84 ERA deserved, Mike Pelfrey builds on an effective 2010 campaign, and Chris Young can stay healthy enough that his career 3.80 average results in more wins throughout the season.

Worst-case scenario: Carlos Beltran continues to be the most overpaid New Yorker since Carl Pavano, the pitching is in tatters, and the Mets are the most expensive last place team in baseball.

Washington Nationals

Best-case scenario: That Nats build behind what should be one of the most athletic and defensively proficient outfields in baseball. Adam LaRaroche has another 25 homer 100 RBI season to go with the consistent Ryan Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth earns his $100 million contract in the middle of the lineup. Ivan Rodriguez and Livan Hernandez turn back the clocks and continue to mentor the young and talented roster, and become the consistent staples behind another young team making a playoff run. If Bryce Harper dominates the minor leagues, maybe he makes a late-season appearance to provide the franchise with the most hype since… well, Stephen Strasburg.

Worst-case scenario: The players simply accept that 2012 is their year to compete, and potential does not measure up to production as this team is again out of the playoff hunt by May. Serious question marks in the pitching staff result in a 100-loss season in one of the toughest divisions in baseball.

Next up, the NL Central. Stay tuned…