The AL East
New York Yankees
Predicted finish: 99-63
Best-case scenario: The Yankees live up to the annual World Series hype and win it all. Jeter slips back into the number 2 spot in the order with ease, proving last season was one bad fluke out of 16 seasons, not the start of a trend. Brett Gardner can continue his upswing in production, and bats closer to .300 with an on base percentage around .400. Russell Martin can handle the staff as the replacement for longtime backstop Jorge Posada as the every day catcher. C.C. Sabathia has another Cy Young-caliber season, while A.J. Burnett pitches like the second pitcher he is paid to be. Phil Hughes continues on his breakout season, and the top three can anchor the pitching staff. With no Kerry Wood to bail him out, Joba Chamberlain has to pitch like the phenom he once was, to get the ball to the ageless Mariano Rivera at the end of the game. Look for the Yankees to poach the best pitcher off of the first team to tank unexpectedly.
Worst-case scenario: Jeter continues to show his age, while A-Rod and Posada (now the DH) follow suit. The Yankees don’t have options at shortstop after giving Jeter the pricy contract he was looking for. Burnett has another terrible season, and Hughes’ ERA continues to hover around 4.00. The staff tanks, while age and youth don’t mix for the offense. Joba continues to underachieve, and the team has trouble bridging the gap between the starters and Rivera .The Yanks are the most expensive third place team in baseball.
Boston Red Sox
Predicted finish: 97-65
Best-case scenario: The Red Sox’ expensive offseason results in overtaking the Yanks and returning to the playoffs after a one-year hiatus. Adrian Gonzalez backs up his offseason talk and is the Yankees’ killer the team has lacked since they traded away Manny. Carl Crawford is the sparkplug, and with 40+ steals gives the offense a unique blend of speed and power that will drive the rest of the AL East crazy. John Lackey, Josh Beckett, and Daisuke Matsuzaka pitch like their paid too (all three had ERAs above 4.40), and with Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz, the Red Sox have a pitching staff as dominant as they look on paper. Jonathan Papelbohn gets over his perceived slights on his status as the team’s closer, and has another dominant season with Daniel Bard to make games against Boston a seven-inning affair.
Worst-case scenario: Boston’s staff underachieves again, and the explosive offense isn’t enough to give the Red Sox a run in October. Papelbohn’s paranoia turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy, and there becomes a closer controversy with former 40 save guy Bobby Jenks and/or the young gun Bard. The chemistry isn’t there for the Sox, and they can’t stave off Tampa for third, let alone take out the Yankees for the division.
Tampa Bay Rays:
Predicted finish: 96-66
Best-case scenario: The infusion of World Series talent in the forms of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez offset the loss of two of the team’s most productive performers. The Rays again follow a strong pitching staff and clutch hitting back to the playoffs and make another series run. David Price sustains or improves on his 2010 brilliance, and “Big Game” James lives up to the nickname. 23-year-old Jeremy Hellickson can build on the 4-0 3.47 ERA taste he gave the Rays last season, while Wade Davis and Jeff Nieman can be effective near the end of the rotation. The team lost a lot of pop, and will need staff to be every bit as good as the 2010 version to make an impact in October.
Worst-case scenario: Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez can’t replace the lost talent, while Manny disrupts the team’s chemistry. Matt Garza was an underrated loss, but if one of the young guys can’t replace his production, his loss will be felt. Kyle Farnsworth (who along with Armando Benitez lead the best stuff/worst production hall of fame) can’t get it done as the closer, and the team seems a lot of late leads slip away.
Baltimore Orioles
Predicted finish: 81-81
Best-case scenario: The team builds off a strong finish to the season after Buck Showalter took over. The Fightin’ Showalters had a very quiet, but efficient offseason. They brought in Derrek Lee, who should be their best first basemen since Rafael Palmeiro’s first stint with the team. They also brought in Vladimir Guerrero, who had a great season (.300/29/115) in his first as a full-time DH with Texas in 2010. Mark Reynolds has plenty of pop, and the O’s will hope his season around the Mendoza line was a fluke. Even if he doesn’t quite return to his back-to-back 20-homer form in 07/08, J.J. Hardy should be their most productive shortstop since they traded Miguel Tejada. The big question mark is the pitching staff, as there is little proven talent here. Jeremy Guthrie enters the season as their ace, and he was three games under .500 last season. Brian Matusz finished the season 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA after Showalter took over, so there is cause for some optimism. The Orioles must get production out of their staff to be competitive. If the pitching produces, there’s no reason this team can’t copy the 2008 Rays’ blueprint, and have an unexpected worst-to-first campaign.
Worst-case scenario: Mark Reynolds continues hits below .200 again, Derrek Lee can’t stay healthy at first, and the imports can’t help the young outfield put runs on the board. The staff falls apart, and the O’s are again out of the race by May. Buck Showalter is forced to eat his words after calling out the Red Sox and Yankees. The Orioles have the talent to be productive, but it’s all about the pitching.
Toronto Blue Jays
Predicted finish: 70-92
Best-case scenario: The Blue Jays again follow the Earl Weaver-approved method of winning via the three-run homer. The Jays surprised a lot of people last season by finishing 8 games above .500, and will need more of the same to compete again. While overpaid, Vernon Wells was still by far the club’s most productive player in the outfield. 23-year-old Travis Snyder will have to have a breakout season to help replace that loss of production. Expecting 54 homers from Jose Bautista again is a long shot, but another 40 would go a long way in helping this team remain competitive. Ricky Romero anchors a young staff that will need to produce. Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil Kyle Drabek, and Jesse Litsch are all under 26 years old, and represent the post-Roy Halladay rebuilding project.
Worst-case scenario: The career season guys come back to earth. Jose Bautista had never had more than 16 home runs in a season before coming out of nowhere for his 54. Travis Snyder can’t replace Wells’ production in the lineup. The pitching staff is too young and ineffective to carry a suddenly less potent offense, and the optimism from last season’ feel-good run are wiped out quickly.
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