Wasn’t it around this time last year that people were referring to this division as the NL Worst? Then the Giants stormed through the playoffs with a dominant rotation, clutch hitting, and eccentric closer. Does any team stand a chance of knocking them off the top of the West?
San Francisco Giants
Best-case scenario: The Giants follow the same formula as last season back to the Series. Top to bottom, this team may be the only one in the National League that can stop the Phillies in their quest for glory. An NLCS match-up would seem to be an epic, seven game affair. This team’s biggest star has people asking when the kid from Dazed and Confused got an arm from God. That didn’t stop them from winning it all, however. San Francisco may be without a superstar, but there is not an easy out in this lineup. The Giants’ first four starters had ERAs around 3.5 or better, and their fifth happens to be their highest paid player, Barry Zito (who made $18.5 million). Offensively, the only potential for some true star power is in the slimmed down form of Pablo Sandoval. “Kung Fu Panda” saw his batting average plummet from .330 in his rookie season to .268. The ability is still there, and some of it may have been from bad luck, as his balls hit in play for outs ratio was unusually high. A season back around .300 seems in line for Sandoval. Other than that, the Giants will have to again rely on quality over quantity hitting from dependable veterans Aubrey Huff, Miguel Tejada, Pat Burrell, and Freddy Sanchez. At the end of the game, Brian Wilson and his beard should remain intimidating suspects no one wants to face at the end of the game.
Worst-case scenario: World Series hangover. The team can’t handle the pressure of a target on their back, and don’t play with the same hunger of the championship campaign. Sandoval continues the downward trend, and hits in the .250’s or worse, and the team’s clutch hitting doesn’t carry over from last season. Satisfied with the championship, the player’s interests now turn to stats and contracts, while they lose the division, and can’t make another October run.
Colorado Rockies
Best-case scenario: The balanced roster follows the lead of stars Ubaldo Jimenez and Troy Tulowitzki to sneak by the Giants and win the division. This fun-loving group makes another late season run, bringing back the Rocktober phenomenon. Left fielder Carlos Gonzalez continues the pace he set with his breakout season to pair up with Tulo, giving the Rockies a devastating 1-2 punch in the middle of the order. Todd Helton bounces back from a down year and has another season hitting around .300 to bump him into “ageless” status. The middle relief is solid with Matt Belisle and Ryan Betancourt, and they may be counted on a lot with a questionable rotation. Outside of Jimenez, none of the starters were more than one game above .500. When healthy, there aren’t many closers out there better than Huston Street.
Worst-case scenario: The Rockies continue to get little production from starters 2-5. An otherwise deep and talented roster goes to waste, and the Rockies hang around .500, missing the playoffs again. Todd Helton continues to falter in the twilight of his career, the Rockies are stuck looking for a long-term replacement at first base, and are faced with the possibility of saying goodbye to the long-time face of the franchise.
Los Angelas Dodgers: Welcome everyone to this season’s edition of Divorce McCourt.
Best-case scenario: The roster ushers in the Don Mattingly era by ignoring the noise upstairs, and playing their brand of baseball. Manny Ramirez is gone, and that should be a classic case of addition by subtraction. The team relies on its pitching staff anchored by promising ace Clayton Kershaw, solid number 2 Clay Billingsley, and dependable veteran Ted Lilly. The offense holds up its end of the bargain. There is no one on the roster that is going to challenge Albert Pujols for stats and accolades (Matt Kemp led the club in homers and RBI with 28 and 89, respectively), but 1 through 8 seem very solid. Jay Gibbons continues his feel-good comeback story. Jonathan Broxton translates his 100 mph fastball into more consistent production, as he only had 22 saves, and an ERA over four. Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Juan Uribe, and James Loney give LA a productive and slick-fielding infield, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are the team’s two best hitters in the outfield. This team has the potential, now it’ s just a matter of production.
Worst-case scenario: The ongoing divorce saga handcuffs the team’s payroll even more. If the team is out of the playoffs by the trade deadline, they could be big sellers. A rebuilding process with wavering leadership in the front office could be a slow and painful drag for Dodgers fans.
San Diego Padres
Best-case scenario: Matt Latos can be the Padres’ version of Tim Lincecum. The 23-year-old ace gave Padres fans reason for hope with his 14-10/2.92 ERA/192 strikeout performance in his 2010 campaign. Clayton Richard can build on his 14-9 season, giving the Padres a legitimate 1-2 punch at the start of the rotation. Tim Stauffer is a live arm coming out of the bullpen to try his hand in the rotation, and if Aaron Harang returns to the 200 strikeout per season pitcher he was in Cincinatti, the Padres will have a complete rotation that can match up well with anyone’s. Heath Bell had one of the best seasons in the league for a closer last season. Brad Hawpe, Ryan Ludwick, and Jason Bartlett will need to return to their performances of seasons past in order to give the offense the needed pop to support the pitching.
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