The NL Central

No one in baseball benefitted from the injury to Adam Wainwright more than the Reds and Brewers. This likely is a two-team race now, as the Cubs, Astros, and Pirates appear to be in some semblance of rebuilding and/or implosion mode. With Wainwright, the Cardinals probably had enough to make a run, now, not so much. So cui bono? Gotta be…

The Milwaukee Brewers (That’s right: The Brewers!!)

Best-case scenario: The Brew Crew follows a powerful lineup and a talented pitching staff to their first playoff berth since C.C. Sabathia picked them up and carried them there with his left arm in 2008. The Brewers are much deeper and more talented than the ‘08 version. Zack Greinke anchors the deep and talented pitching staff (their number 5 starter, Chris Narveson was 12-9) back into the postseason with their first division championship since 1982. John Axford is a gifted young arm closing, and should get more opportunities to finish things off in his second season on the job. In order to be a true threat, Prince Fielder will need to come closer to his .299 battering average and 141 RBI he had in 2009 than his .261/83 RBI campaign he had in 2010. Ryan Bran, Corey Hart, Casey McGhee, and Rickie Weeks offer plenty of support, but the big fella has to produce.

Worst-case scenario: Zack Greinke can’t handle his new town (the broken rib isn’t a good start), and melts down again, leaving this staff without an ace. John Axford proves to be a one-year wonder, and the Brewers don’t have a backup plan. Prince Fielder continues his downward slope in consistency and a lot of runners are left on base in key situations, while the rest of the offense doesn’t provide enough pop to overcome the now mediocre pitching staff.

The Cincinnati Reds

Best-case scenario: The Reds improve on last season’s club that was in the race for the division all year, and won the Wild Card for their first postseason appearance since 1999. Joey Votto has another MVP-caliber season, and Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, and Jonny Gomes support their slugger with more of the same from last season. Edinson Volquez returns to his 17-win breakout season form of 2008, and Homer Bailey has a career year to back up the hype that’s been swirling around him since he was made the number seven overall pick in 2004. Aroldis Chapman continues to be the phenom he was last season, while Francisco Cordero has another 40 save season.

Worst-case scenario: Joey Votto can’t hold up to the standards of his 2010 campaign. The rest of the offense; Phillips, Rolen, and Bruce, are great complementary pieces, but without another dominant season from Votto, there is no one to complement. Aroldis Chapman goes the way of Joel Zumaya and Stephen Strasburg, bringing more ammunition to the “maybe the human arm just isn’t meant to throw a baseball that fast” argument, leaving the team without a consistent setup man. Francisco Cordero’s high ERA for a closer (3.84) leads to more blown saves than last season, and the Reds can’t get their first back-t-back playoff appearances since the Big Red Machine did it in 1975-76.

Chicago Cubs

Best-case scenario: This club’s considerable talent comes together and the Cubbies can make a serious run at their first championship since 1908. Alfonso Soriano puts all his ability into one dominant season, giving the Cubs an explosive 1-2 punch with Aramis Ramirez. Speaking of Ramirez, he must prove his .241/25/83 campaign was a fluke, not the start of a trend, and get back to the .280/30/100 player we know and love. Carlos Pena brings his home runs and RBI from Tampa to Wrigley, protecting the other big bats in the lineup. Starlin Castro is a spark plug at the top of the order, while Geovany Soto is as solid a catcher as a club could ask for. Carlos Zambrano can bottle his ace potential, allowing Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza to slip back into the roles their ability dictates: as second and third starters on a good team, not 1-2. Kerry Wood continues the set-up dominance he displayed in New York, while Carlos Marmol has another impressive season as the closer.

Worst-case scenario: A roster full of overpaid athletes underperforms. Again. Soriano disappoints, and Carlos Pena brings the low batting average and high strikeout rate to Wrigley, leaving the homers and RBI in Tropicana. Marlon Byrd proves he was a one-year wonder, never again sniffing another all-star team. Starlin Castro joins a long line of Cubs phenoms to disappoint, and isn’t the answer at shortstop. Zambrano melts down again, leaving Garza and Dempster to carry an otherwise subpar pitching staff. Wood and Marmol may again have great stats, but setup men and closers can’t win games if the starters can’t give effective innings. If the Cubs free fall and Zambrano remains composed and impressive, look for the Yankees to be knocking on that door. Hard.

St. Louis Cardinals:

Best-case scenario: Someone can step in and win 15-20 games in Adam Wainwright’s place. With Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, the Cards had a 1-2 punch that could go toe-to-toe with anyone’s in baseball. Now there are a lot of question marks. 24-year-old lefty Jaime Garcia seems to be the only option in-house to break out and have an ace’ impact. His 13-8 record with a 2.70 ERA and 132 strikeouts in his first season starting is very promising. Albert Pujols has another MVP caliber season, while Matt Holliday is the Robin to his Batman. Lance Berkman can turn back the clock and team with impressive 24-year-old center fielder Colby Rasmus (.276/23/66) as the supporting bats this club needs behind the big boys.

Worst-case scenario: The Cardinals continue the downward slope that started well before the season. With Wainwright, their 1-2 combination was dominant enough they had a puncher’s chance in the playoffs to make a championship run. Now, with their ace gone (he led the club in every starters’ major statistic) the pitching staff is in shambles, and the Albert Pujols drama will only get worse the further we get into the season, and the more games the Cards lose. Again, look for the Yankees to play the role of the vulture for Chris Carpenter as soon as this team is out of playoff contention.

Houston Astros:

Best-case scenario: Somebody cloned the 25-year-old versions of Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, and the Killer Bs are Back Baby!!! Seriously, though, this team seems in full rebuilding mode, and look to have no interest in competing in 2011. However, to give some Astros fans out there some hope… Carlos Lee returns to his .300, 30 homer, 100 RBI form of seasons past, while Hunter Pence improves on his 25 homer 91 RBI season. Clint Barmes can return to his “Rocktober” form and hits 20+ dingers to improve this rancid offense. Thus, Wandy Rodriguez can get the necessary run support to get more than the 25 combined wins his 3.30 ERA over the past two seasons dictate. Brett Myers can recapture his number 2 stuff he had off-and-on with the Phillies, and J.A. Happ can combine his 2009 and 2010 seasons into one 18-8 3.25 ERA extravaganza.

Worst-case scenario: Pence and Lee are the only two players on offense that look like they belong in the Major Leagues, while Wandy Rodriguez’ low ERA goes to waste for the third season in a row (we call this the Roy Oswalt effect). The Astros trade away their only real big league talent for more prospects, and continue to break down the club for the rebuilding era.

Pittsburgh Pirates:

Best-case scenario: A terrible plane crash eliminates the rest of the competition, leaving the Pirates as your de facto 2011 MLB champions!!! (Note: It was either that or I led with the dropping down to triple A joke. But I go for dramatic effect). Seriously though, the thing Bucs fans could hope for is this team actually decides to compete at a major league level. You could build an entire all-star team based on the talent this team has traded for prospects, only to do the same thing once those prospects turn into viable major league options. You’re talking to a man with a soft spot in his heart for the Pirates, but why waste fans’ loyalty and money if you’re just going to be a farm system for the Yankees, Red Sox and the rest of the Major Leagues?? And don’t give me that “they are a small market” malarkey. Look at the other small markets that have kept their own talent and competed: The Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies, and Cincinnati Reds, just to name a few. That’s it. I’m done. Talk to me when you decide to compete again, Pirates’ ownership.